August Palm Oil Forecast Range: RM4,400 to RM4,650

01The Story新闻事实

Malaysian Palm Oil Council projects crude palm oil between RM4,400 and RM4,650 per tonne in August 2026. Biodiesel mandates and gasoil price surges support prices, while elevated stocks in India and China cap further gains.马来西亚棕榈��理事会预计2026年8月毛棕榈油均价介于4400至4650令吉。生物柴油政策与柴油暴涨提供支撑，印中高库存抑制涨幅。

MPOC projects August CPO price range of RM4,400 to RM4,650 per tonne.MPOC预计8月毛棕榈油价格在每吨4400至4650令吉区间。
Renewed US-Iran conflict lifted July 2026 gasoil prices 30%, surpassing vegetable oil prices.美伊冲突推动2026年7月柴油价格上涨30%，高于植物油价格。
Malaysia palm oil output reached 1.63 million tonnes in June 2026, up 8% month-on-month.2026年6月马来西亚棕榈油产量达163万吨，环比增长8%。
Malaysia palm oil inventories rose to a four-month high of 2.5 million tonnes in June 2026.2026年6月马来西亚棕榈油库存增至250万吨，创4个月新高。

Geopolitical energy rallies and biodiesel mandates support palm oil prices, while high inventory in major importing Asian nations caps runaway price increases.地缘政治引发的能源涨势与生柴政策支撑底价，亚洲主要买方高库存限制上涨空间。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Historical context历史脉络

Supply Growth & Inventory Accumulation产量回升与库存累积

Seasonal production upcycle drove June output higher, building inventories to a four-month peak.季节性增产推动6月产量走高，库存累积至4个月高位。

Malaysia June 2026 CPO Output2026年6月马来西亚毛棕榈油产量

June 20262026年6月1.6M tonnes

June 20262026年6月2.5M tonnes

Malaysia palm oil output rose 8.0% month-on-month to 1.63 million tonnes in June 2026.2026年6月马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增长8.0%至163万吨。
Crude palm oil prices increased 14% year-to-date due to earlier weather concerns.受前期极端天气忧虑影响，毛棕榈油价格年内上涨14%。

Cause因果关系

Energy Premium & Biodiesel Mandates能源溢价与生柴拉动

Middle East tension pushed gasoil prices above edible oils, improving economic incentives for bio-blending.中东局势推高柴油价格并超越食用油，提升生物掺混经济性。

July 2026 Gasoil Price Surge2026年7月柴油价格涨幅

July 20262026年7月30 %

Middle East conflict lifted gasoil prices above palm oil and soybean oil in July 2026.2026年7月地缘冲突推动柴油价格升至棕榈油与豆油之上。
Southeast Asian biofuel blending mandates provide sustained baseline demand.东南亚生物燃料强制掺混政策提供持续需求支撑。

Consequence影响推演

Importer Inventory & Festival Demand买方库存与节日备货

Elevated stocks in India delay immediate purchases, but pre-Diwali restocking between July and September will boost shipments.印度高库存拖累即期采购，但7至9月排灯节备货将提振需求。

India Q3 Veg Oil Import Share印度第三季度植物油进口占比

30 %30%

July-September Annual7月至9月年度

India typically imports 30% of its annual vegetable oil requirements from July to September.印度通常在7月至9月进口全年约30%的植物油需求。
Elevated vegetable oil stocks in India and China currently restrain short-term import growth.印度与中国的高位植物油库存目前压制短期进口增长。

03Timeline时间线

2026-03-01 Malaysia palm oil seasonal production upcycle begins.马来西亚棕榈油进入季节性增产周期。
2026-06-30 Malaysia June palm oil production reaches 1.63 million tonnes.马来西亚6月棕榈油产量达163万吨。
2026-07-10 US-Iran tensions escalate, lifting global gasoil prices.美伊局势紧张推升全球柴油价格。
2026-07-22 MPOC projects August price range between RM4,400 and RM4,650.MPOC预测8月价格介于4400至4650令吉。

Key takeaway核心结论

Strong energy markets and Indian festival restocking floor palm oil prices, but high destination stocks limit rally upside.能源走强与印度节日备货奠定价格底部，买方高库存限制上方空间。

04What to Watch后续关注

Rebound in Indian import volume during festival restocking.印度节日备货期间进口反弹力度。
Gasoil premium over vegetable oils driven by geopolitical conflict.地缘冲突引发的柴油对植物油溢价。
Implementation rate of Indonesia B50 biodiesel mandate.印尼B50生物柴油政策落实进度。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

Duration and escalation level of US-Iran geopolitical tension.美伊地缘冲突持续时间与升级程度。
Inflationary pressure eroding consumer purchasing power in India.通货膨胀削弱印度终端消费购买力。

06Sources信息来源

Palm oil likely rangebound in August amid firmer energy prices, soft demand — council马来西亚棕榈油理事会：能源价格走强与需求疲软交织 8月棕榈油或维持区间震荡 The Edge Malaysia · 2026-07-22
MPOC August 2026 Palm Oil Market Outlook马来西亚棕榈油理事会2026年8月棕榈油市场展望 Malaysian Palm Oil Council · 2026-07-22

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