Green Industrial Policy Replaces Carbon Pricing as Climate Strategy

01The Story新闻事实

A research paper by Wesleyan Professor Basak Kus examines the global shift from carbon pricing toward Green Industrial Policy, which uses subsidies, tax credits and public guarantees to support low-carbon industries. The paper compares approaches in China, the United States and the European Union, and links climate policy increasingly to economic growth, national security and geopolitical rivalry.Wesleyan大学教授Basak Kus的一篇研究论文考察了全球从碳定价转向绿色产业政策的趋势，后者通过补贴、税收抵免和公共担保支持低碳产业。论文比较了中国、美国和欧盟的不同路径，并指出气候政策正日益与经济增长、国家安全和地缘政治竞争相联系。

For much of the past 50 years, policymakers primarily relied on carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems to address emissions.在过去约50年的大部分时间里，政策制定者主要依靠碳税和碳排放交易体系应对排放问题。
Green Industrial Policy uses state-led measures such as tax credits, direct subsidies and public funding guarantees to accelerate renewable energy and low-carbon sectors.绿色产业政策通过税收抵免、直接补贴和公共资金担保等国家主导措施，加快可再生能源和低碳产业发展。
China identified clean technology as a strategic foundation of national development through the 2015 Made in China 2025 initiative.中国通过2015年的“中国制造2025”倡议，将清洁技术确定为国家发展的战略基础。
China's post-2020 dual-carbon goals project a peak in carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.中国在2020年后提出的“双碳”目标预计在2030年前实现碳排放达峰，并在2060年实现碳中和。
By 2024 estimates, China accounted for nearly 40 percent of global renewable energy capacity and had invested around $818 billion in the energy transition.根据2024年的估算，中国占全球可再生能源装机容量的近40%，并已在能源转型领域投资约8180亿美元。
The European Union accelerated Green Industrial Policy efforts after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed its dependence on fossil fuels.2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰暴露出欧盟对化石燃料的依赖后，欧盟加快了绿色产业政策的推进。

Climate policy is increasingly being designed not only to reduce emissions but also to build industrial capacity, support growth and strengthen geopolitical resilience.气候政策的设计目标正不再局限于减排，也 increasingly包括建设产业能力、支持经济增长和增强地缘政治韧性。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Historical context历史脉络

From carbon prices to state intervention从碳定价转向国家干预

Carbon pricing sought to make emitters bear the costs of emissions, but the article says implementation was slower and prices were often lower than recommended. Green Industrial Policy instead directly supports clean industries through public resources.碳定价试图让排放者承担排放成本，但文章指出其实施速度较慢，实际价格也常低于建议水平。绿色产业政策则通过公共资源直接支持清洁产业。

Carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems did not reduce carbon as quickly as expected, according to the research discussed.根据文中讨论的研究，碳税和碳排放交易体系未能像预期那样快速降低碳排放。
Green Industrial Policy commonly includes tax credits, direct subsidies and public funding guarantees.绿色产业政策通常包括税收抵免、直接补贴和公共资金担保。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

China's development-led model中国的发展导向模式

China's approach treats clean technology as part of national development and strategic competition, linking decarbonization with domestic productive capacity and reduced dependence on foreign technology.中国的路径将清洁技术视为国家发展和战略竞争的一部分，把脱碳与提升国内生产能力、减少对外国技术依赖联系起来。

Share of global renewable energy capacity, nearly全球可再生能源装机容量占比，近似值

40 percent40%

20242024年

Energy-transition investment能源转型投资

818 billion USD818十亿美元

2024 estimate2024年估算

Overseas green-industry investment in the past three years, more than过去三年海外绿色产业投资，超过

250 billion USD250十亿美元

past three years过去三年

The 2015 Made in China 2025 initiative identified green-energy vehicles and advanced electric power equipment among key development areas.2015年的“中国制造2025”倡议将新能源汽车和先进电力设备列为重点发展领域。
China's dual-carbon goals project an emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.中国“双碳”目标预计在2030年前实现排放达峰，并在2060年实现碳中和。

Comparison对比

Three different implementation paths三种不同的政策实施路径

China, the United States and the European Union use different institutional and strategic approaches. The article attributes these differences to state structure, fiscal capacity, bureaucracy, financing and the strength of political commitments to decarbonization.中国、美国和欧盟采取了不同的制度和战略路径。文章认为，这些差异与国家结构、财政能力、官僚体系、融资条件以及脱碳政治承诺的强弱有关。

The United States' approach under Biden was described as decentralized, subsidy-driven and focused on national security; under Trump, climate regulation was rolled back.文章将拜登政府时期的美国路径描述为去中心化、以补贴驱动并强调国家安全；特朗普政府时期则削弱了气候监管。
The European Union's approach centers on derisking and accelerated after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed fossil-fuel dependence.欧盟的路径以降低风险为核心，并在2022年乌克兰遭入侵、化石燃料依赖暴露后加快推进。
The research examines how Green Industrial Policy affects low- and middle-income countries.该研究考察了绿色产业政策对中低收入国家的影响。

03Timeline时间线

2015 China announced the Made in China 2025 initiative, identifying several clean-technology sectors as important to future growth.中国公布“中国制造2025”倡议，将多个清洁技术领域确定为未来增长的重要方向。
2020 After 2020, China established dual-carbon goals targeting an emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.2020年后，中国提出“双碳”目标，计划在2030年前实现排放达峰、2060年实现碳中和。
2022 Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe's fossil-fuel dependence and accelerated the European Union's Green Industrial Policy efforts.俄罗斯入侵乌克兰暴露了欧洲对化石燃料的依赖，并推动欧盟加快绿色产业政策进程。
2026-10-06 Wesleyan University published its article discussing Basak Kus's research on the shift from carbon pricing to Green Industrial Policy.Wesleyan大学发布文章，介绍Basak Kus关于从碳定价转向绿色产业政策的研究。

Key takeaway核心结论

The global climate-policy debate is moving toward state-backed industrial transformation, but national policy continuity and institutional capacity remain decisive.全球气候政策讨论正转向国家支持的产业转型，但政策连续性和制度能力仍是决定因素。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether Green Industrial Policy can support economic growth while delivering faster emissions reductions.绿色产业政策能否在支持经济增长的同时实现更快减排。
How changes in U.S. political leadership affect the continuity of climate and industrial policies.美国政治领导层变化将如何影响气候与产业政策的连续性。
How China's overseas green-industry investment affects competition and development opportunities in other countries.中国海外绿色产业投资将如何影响其他国家的竞争格局和发展机会。
How low- and middle-income countries are affected by the global shift toward Green Industrial Policy.全球转向绿色产业政策将如何影响中低收入国家。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The article does not establish whether Green Industrial Policy will consistently reduce emissions across different national contexts.文章没有确定绿色产业政策能否在不同国家环境下持续实现减排。
The future direction of U.S. climate and industrial policy remains uncertain because of changes between administrations.由于政府更替，美国气候与产业政策的未来方向仍存在不确定性。
The research raises further questions about how climate economics should account for industrial policy, national security and geopolitical rivalry.该研究提出了气候经济学应如何纳入产业政策、国家安全和地缘政治竞争等因素的问题。

06Sources信息来源

The Climate Policy Shift Reshaping Global EconomiesThe Climate Policy Shift Reshaping Global Economies Wesleyan University News · 2026-10-06

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