Europe’s energy transition shifts, rather than ends, dependence

01The Story新闻事实

The European Union has sharply reduced its reliance on Russian gas, but remains dependent on imported hydrocarbons and global gas markets. LNG, particularly from the United States, has replaced part of the previous pipeline supply, while electricity costs, grid investment and balancing requirements continue to weigh on households and industry.欧盟大幅降低了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，但仍依赖进口碳氢化合物和全球天然气市场。液化天然气，尤其是来自美国的供应，取代了部分原有管道气；与此同时，电价、电网投资和系统平衡需求继续给家庭和工业带来压力。

Russian gas supplies to the EU fell from about 152 bcm in 2021, or 45% of EU gas imports, to 36 bcm in 2025, or 12%.俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应量从2021年的约1520亿立方米（占欧盟天然气进口量的45%）降至2025年的360亿立方米（占12%）。
EU gas imports reached 289 bcm in 2025, up from 273 bcm in 2024; LNG accounted for 131 bcm, or 45% of total imports.欧盟天然气进口量在2025年达到2890亿立方米，高于2024年的2730亿立方米；液化天然气占1310亿立方米，即进口总量的45%。
The United States supplied 56% of the EU’s LNG imports in 2025, while Russia supplied 13.9% and Qatar 8.9%.2025年，美国供应了欧盟液化天然气进口量的56%，俄罗斯和卡塔尔分别占13.9%和8.9%。
The average EU household electricity price was €28.96 per 100 kWh in the second half of 2025; Germany’s was €38.69.2025年下半年，欧盟家庭平均电价为每100千瓦时28.96欧元；德国为38.69欧元。
The EU average electricity price for non-household consumers using 500–2,000 MWh annually was €18.37 per 100 kWh, compared with €22.64 in Germany.对于年用电量500至2000兆瓦时的非家庭用户，欧盟平均电价为每100千瓦时18.37欧元，德国为22.64欧元。

Europe’s transition has changed the geography of energy dependence without removing its exposure to imports, global prices and system costs.欧洲能源转型改变了能源依赖的地理分布，却没有消除其对进口、全球价格和电力系统成本的暴露。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Comparison对比

From Russian gas to LNG exposure从俄罗斯天然气转向液化天然气依赖

The EU has reduced Russian gas volumes, but its total gas imports increased in 2025. The shift toward LNG links European buyers more directly to global cargo competition, Asian demand and US production.欧盟减少了俄罗斯天然气进口量，但其天然气总进口量在2025年上升。转向液化天然气使欧洲买家更直接地受到全球货物竞争、亚洲需求和美国生产的影响。

Russian gas supplies to EU俄罗斯对欧盟天然气供应量

20212021年152 bcm

20252025年289 bcm

20252025年45 %

LNG imports rose to 131 bcm in 2025, while pipeline imports declined to 158 bcm.2025年液化天然气进口量升至1310亿立方米，而管道气进口量降至1580亿立方米。
The EU supplied 56% of its LNG imports from the United States in 2025.2025年，美国供应了欧盟液化天然气进口量的56%。

Consequence影响推演

Household affordability remains weak家庭能源负担仍然较重

The article argues that renewable generation does not determine the full household bill. Network charges, taxes, balancing, backup capacity, storage and other system costs remain part of the final price.文章指出，可再生能源发电成本并不决定家庭最终电费。网络费用、税费、系统平衡、备用容量、储能和其他系统成本仍会计入最终账单。

Average EU household electricity price欧盟家庭平均电价

H2 20252025年下半年28.96 EUR per 100 kWh

H2 20252025年下半年38.69 EUR per 100 kWh

The source says EU household electricity prices were three times higher than in the United States.来源称，欧盟家庭电价是美国的三倍。
Germany had one of the highest household electricity prices in the EU.德国的家庭电价位居欧盟最高水平之列。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Industrial competitiveness gap工业竞争力差距

High electricity and gas costs create pressure for electricity-intensive sectors. The source links this to weaker international competitiveness and warns that lower emissions per unit of production may reflect industrial decline rather than efficiency gains.较高的电力和天然气成本给耗电密集型行业带来压力。来源称，这削弱了相关行业的国际竞争力，并警告称，单位产出的排放下降可能反映的是工业衰退，而非效率提升。

Average EU non-household electricity price欧盟非家庭用户平均电价

H2 20252025年下半年18.37 EUR per 100 kWh

H2 20252025年下半年22.64 EUR per 100 kWh

The Commission acknowledges that industrial gas and electricity prices remain two to four times higher than those of the EU’s main trading partners.欧盟委员会承认，工业天然气和电力价格仍是欧盟主要贸易伙伴的两至四倍。
The source says electricity-intensive sectors face producers with lower gas and power costs in other markets.来源称，耗电密集型行业面对的是来自其他市场、享有更低天然气和电力成本的生产商。

Cause因果关系

Reliability costs move through the system可靠性成本转移至电力系统

A larger share of weather-dependent generation requires investment in transmission, distribution, balancing, reserves and flexible generation. The source argues that these costs remain necessary even when wind and solar have low marginal generation costs.天气依赖型发电占比上升，需要在输电、配电、系统平衡、备用容量和灵活发电方面进行投资。来源认为，即使风电和太阳能的边际发电成本较低，这些成本仍然不可避免。

Transmission must connect offshore wind, remote wind regions and large solar clusters to industrial demand centres.输电网络必须将海上风电、偏远风电区域和大型太阳能集群连接到工业需求中心。
Distribution networks must support decentralised photovoltaics, electric vehicles, heat pumps and electrification.配电网络必须支持分布式光伏、电动汽车、热泵和电气化。
The source says gas plants remain necessary for flexibility and security of supply, even though their economics worsen when they operate fewer hours.来源称，天然气电厂仍是灵活性和供应安全所必需的，但其运行小时数减少后，经济性会恶化。

03Timeline时间线

2021 Russian gas supplies accounted for about 152 bcm, or 45% of EU gas imports.俄罗斯天然气供应量约为1520亿立方米，占欧盟天然气进口量的45%。
2025 EU gas imports reached 289 bcm, with LNG accounting for 45% of the total.欧盟天然气进口量达到2890亿立方米，其中液化天然气占45%。
2026-10-05 Tomorrow’s Affairs published its analysis of Europe’s energy transition and continued dependence.Tomorrow’s Affairs发表关于欧洲能源转型及其持续依赖的分析。
2027-01-01 Long-term Russian LNG contracts are scheduled to end under the EU’s approved withdrawal plan.根据欧盟已批准的退出计划，俄罗斯液化天然气长期合同预计于这一天结束。
2027-09-30 Remaining Russian pipeline gas imports are scheduled to end under the EU plan.根据欧盟计划，剩余俄罗斯管道气进口预计于这一天结束。

Key takeaway核心结论

Europe has reduced its Russian energy exposure, but its transition remains costly and dependent on imported fuels, global LNG markets and extensive power-system investment.欧洲降低了对俄罗斯能源的暴露，但其转型仍然代价高昂，并依赖进口燃料、全球液化天然气市场和大规模电力系统投资。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether the EU can enforce its scheduled withdrawal from Russian LNG and pipeline gas.欧盟能否执行其停止进口俄罗斯液化天然气和管道气的时间表。
How European buyers respond if Asian demand rises or US LNG production and shipping face constraints.如果亚洲需求上升，或美国液化天然气生产和运输受到限制，欧洲买家将如何应对。
Whether grid expansion, balancing, storage and backup-capacity costs alter the affordability of the transition.电网扩建、系统平衡、储能和备用容量成本是否会改变能源转型的可负担性。
Whether high industrial energy prices lead to further industrial displacement or policy adjustments.高工业能源价格是否会导致更多产业转移，或促使相关政策调整。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The source says the EU’s planned withdrawal from Russian gas may be extended because enforcement is considered difficult.来源称，由于执行被认为存在困难，欧盟计划退出俄罗斯天然气的安排可能会延期。
The scale of future price pressure depends on global LNG demand, production outages, shipping disruptions and US policy choices.未来价格压力的程度取决于全球液化天然气需求、生产设施故障、运输中断和美国政策选择。
The article does not quantify how much of future emissions reductions would result from efficiency gains versus industrial decline.文章没有量化未来减排中有多少来自效率提升，又有多少来自工业衰退。

06Sources信息来源

Europe’s energy transition: an expensive change of dependenceEurope’s energy transition: an expensive change of dependence Tomorrow's Affairs · 2026-10-05

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