Global markets trade mixed despite strong US economic data美国经济数据强劲，全球市场走势分化

01The Story新闻事实

Stronger-than-expected US growth, employment and inflation data eased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with money market odds falling from 70% to 38%. Yet Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs, weighing on US and European equities. Asian markets rose, with Japanese and South Korean chipmakers lifted by Micron's earnings and record South Korean semiconductor exports.美国增长、就业和通胀数据强于预期，令市场对美联储10月加息的预期从70%降至38%。但美债收益率创数十年新高，拖累美欧股市。亚洲市场上涨，美光财报和韩国创纪录的半导体出口提振日韩芯片股。

• The US economy grew 2.2% year-on-year in Q2, above the preliminary 1.5% estimate.美国第二季度经济同比增长2.2%，高于1.5%的初步估计。
• Core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3% annually in August, below the 3.3% annual expectation.8月核心PCE环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨3%，低于3.3%的同比预期。
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in October fell from 70% to 38% after the data release.数据发布后，市场对美联储10月加息的概率预期从70%降至38%。
• The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31%, its highest since 2007, while the 30-year topped 5.65%.美国10年期国债收益率触及5.31%，为2007年以来最高；30年期突破5.65%。
• South Korea's exports rose 83.5% year-on-year, driven by record semiconductor shipments amid AI demand.受人工智能需求推动，韩国出口同比增长83.5%，半导体出货量创纪录。
• Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.9% and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.9% near Thursday's close.临近周四收盘，日经225指数上涨2.9%，韩国Kospi指数上涨1.9%。

Resilient US data has pushed back near-term Fed rate hike expectations, but elevated Treasury yields and diesel-driven inflation uncertainty continue to suppress global risk appetite, while AI-driven chip demand powers Asian equities.强劲的美国数据令美联储近期加息预期降温，但高企的美债收益率和柴油价格带来的通胀不确定性仍压制全球风险偏好，而AI驱动的芯片需求则提振亚洲股市。

024 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2026-08 Core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3% annually; July saw 0.1% monthly and 3% annual increases.核心PCE环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨3%；7月环比涨0.1%、同比涨3%。
2. 2026-09 Diesel prices surged; Japan's manufacturing PMI hit 54.1.柴油价格飙升；日本制造业PMI达54.1。
3. 2026-10-01 Strong US data released; Fed October hike odds fell to 38%; global markets traded mixed.美国强劲数据发布；美联储10月加息概率降至38%；全球市场走势分化。

Key takeaway核心结论

Strong US data has delayed but not eliminated Fed rate hike expectations, leaving bond yields elevated and global markets divided, while AI chip demand offers a bright spot in Asia.强劲的美国数据推迟但未消除美联储加息预期，债券收益率维持高位、全球市场分化，而AI芯片需求成为亚洲亮点。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Whether the Fed proceeds with rate hikes at meetings after October.美联储在10月之后的会议上是否会继续加息。
2. How surging September diesel prices feed into future inflation data.9月飙升的柴油价格如何反映在后续通胀数据中。
3. Whether the US moves to ban diesel exports, which Trump acknowledged would affect gas prices.美国是否会禁止柴油出口——特朗普承认这将影响汽油价格。
4. South Korea's reported plan to invest up to $200 billion in major US energy projects.据报道韩国计划在美国大型能源项目上投资至多2000亿美元。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• The impact of September's diesel price surge has yet to appear in the data, leaving inflation outlook unclear.9月柴油价格飙升的影响尚未体现在数据中，通胀前景不明。
• Trump called for former Fed chair Jerome Powell to resign over renovation cost overruns; the outcome remains uncertain.特朗普因美联储大楼翻新成本超支要求前主席鲍威尔辞职，结果尚不确定。

06Sources信息来源

1. Global markets trade mixed despite strong US economic dataGlobal markets trade mixed despite strong US economic data Anadolu Agency · 2026-10-01

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析