Energy Transition Costs Rise, but Inaction Carries Larger Risks能源转型成本上升，但不作为的风险更大

01The Story新闻事实

The article argues that the energy transition requires substantially higher investment, particularly in Germany’s grids, generation, buildings, transport and industry. It contrasts these costs with climate-related damages, fossil-fuel import exposure and price volatility, while citing declining renewable and storage costs and the potential for renewables to improve energy-system resilience.文章认为，能源转型需要大幅增加投资，重点涉及德国的电网、发电、建筑、交通和工业。文章将这些成本与气候相关损失、化石燃料进口风险及价格波动进行对比，同时指出可再生能源和储能成本持续下降，并可能提升能源系统韧性。

• The IEA expects renewables’ share of global electricity generation to rise from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.国际能源署预计，可再生能源在全球发电量中的占比将从2025年的33%升至2027年的37%。
• Germany’s average annual energy-related investment was approximately €82 billion in 2020–2024, compared with projected average needs of around €184 billion in 2035.德国2020年至2024年的能源相关年均投资约为820亿欧元，而2035年预计平均需求约为1840亿欧元。
• Estimated annual German energy-transition investment needs for 2035 range from €113 billion to €316 billion, with total costs of €4.8 trillion to €5.4 trillion projected for 2025–2049.预计德国2035年的能源转型年度投资需求在1130亿至3160亿欧元之间，2025年至2049年的总成本预计为4.8万亿至5.4万亿欧元。
• Germany spends an average of €81 billion annually on fossil fuels and has net import quotas above 95% for crude oil and natural gas, and 100% for hard coal.德国每年平均花费810亿欧元进口化石燃料；原油和天然气的净进口比例超过95%，硬煤为100%。
• From 2010 to 2024, total installation costs fell 87% for solar PV and 55% for onshore wind, while battery-storage costs fell 93%.2010年至2024年，太阳能光伏总安装成本下降87%，陆上风电下降55%，电池储能成本下降93%。

The article presents energy-transition investment as a cost of reducing longer-term exposure to climate damage, fossil-fuel prices and import dependence.文章将能源转型投资视为降低长期气候损失、化石燃料价格和进口依赖风险的成本。

023 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2025 Renewables accounted for 33% of global electricity generation, according to the IEA.据国际能源署统计，可再生能源占全球发电量的33%。
2. 2026 The article says renewables are projected to surpass coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation by mid-year.文章称，预计到年中，可再生能源将超过煤炭，成为全球最大的发电来源。
3. 2027 The IEA expects renewables to reach 37% of global electricity generation.国际能源署预计，可再生能源将占全球发电量的37%。
4. 2030 Natural-gas imports could decline by up to a quarter if the cited EU renewable and heat-pump targets are met.如果实现文中引用的欧盟可再生能源和热泵目标，天然气进口量最多可能下降四分之一。

Key takeaway核心结论

The article’s core argument is that accelerating investment in grids, renewables and flexibility may cost less over time than maintaining fossil-fuel dependence and absorbing climate-related losses.文章的核心观点是，加快电网、可再生能源和系统灵活性投资，长期成本可能低于维持化石燃料依赖并承担气候相关损失。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Whether global renewables reach the IEA’s projected 37% share of electricity generation by 2027.全球可再生能源发电占比能否在2027年达到国际能源署预计的37%。
2. How Germany’s grid investment develops relative to the cited future need of €37 billion annually.德国电网投资能否接近文中所述每年370亿欧元的未来需求。
3. Whether EU solar, wind and heat-pump expansion targets are sufficient to reduce natural-gas imports by up to a quarter by 2030.欧盟太阳能、风能和热泵扩张目标能否推动2030年天然气进口量最多下降四分之一。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• The estimated German annual investment need for 2035 spans a wide range of €113 billion to €316 billion because assumptions and future cost developments remain uncertain.由于相关假设和未来成本变化仍存在不确定性，德国2035年年度投资需求估算在1130亿至3160亿欧元之间，区间较大。
• Renewables are expanding, but global electricity-sector CO₂ emissions are still expected to increase by more than 1% in 2026.尽管可再生能源持续扩张，全球电力行业二氧化碳排放量预计仍将在2026年增加超过1%。
• The projected reduction in natural-gas imports depends on meeting the specified EU expansion targets.天然气进口量下降的预测取决于欧盟能否实现文中所述的扩张目标。

06Sources信息来源

1. True Costs of the Energy Transition | RÖDLTrue Costs of the Energy Transition | RÖDL RÖDL · 2026-10-07

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析