China’s Potential Crypto Reopening Could Have a Limited Effect on SOL

01The Story新闻事实

Joseph Chee, executive chairman of Solana Co., told The Wall Street Journal that China may eventually find a way to manage cryptocurrency. The article notes that Beijing has not announced any change to its bans, while Hong Kong’s retail licensing regime could offer a testing ground. Any reopening could shift existing offshore demand into official channels rather than generate entirely new investment.Solana Co.执行董事长Joseph Chee对《华尔街日报》表示，中国最终可能会找到管理加密货币的方式。文章指出，北京尚未宣布改变现有禁令，而香港的零售牌照制度可能成为政策试验场。即使重新开放，部分资金也可能只是从现有的非官方渠道转入官方渠道，而非带来全新的投资需求。

China banned initial coin offerings and crypto fundraising in 2017.中国于2017年禁止首次代币发行和加密货币募资。
In 2021, China declared crypto transactions illegal and intensified its mining crackdown.2021年，中国宣布加密货币交易违法，并加大了对挖矿活动的打击力度。
Hong Kong introduced a licensing regime for retail crypto investors in 2023.香港于2023年推出面向零售加密货币投资者的牌照制度。
As of October 4, 2026, the Chinese government had not announced changes to its domestic crypto trading and mining bans.截至2026年10月4日，中国政府尚未宣布改变国内加密货币交易和挖矿禁令。
SOL traded near $121 on October 4, after rising 48% in the third quarter and falling 2.6% over the previous week.10月4日，SOL价格接近121美元；该币第三季度上涨48%，此前一周下跌2.6%。

The market impact of any Chinese crypto policy shift would depend more on the access rules than on the reopening label itself.中国加密货币政策变化的市场影响，关键取决于具体准入规则，而不只是“重新开放”这一表述。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Historical context历史脉络

A controlled policy path受控的政策路径

Chee suggested that Hong Kong could function as a testing ground while mainland China maintains stricter controls. This would allow Beijing to observe the effects of looser rules without immediately opening the mainland market broadly.Chee表示，在中国内地继续维持更严格管控的同时，香港可能充当政策试验场。这样，北京可以观察较宽松规则的效果，而不必立即全面开放内地市场。

China tightened its crypto policy in 2017 and 2021, while Hong Kong introduced retail licensing in 2023.中国在2017年和2021年收紧加密货币政策，而香港在2023年推出了零售牌照制度。
The article describes Hong Kong’s approach as a possible testing ground for mainland policy changes.文章称，香港的做法可能成为内地政策变化的试验场。

Consequence影响推演

Rules would determine the size of the market effect规则将决定市场影响的规模

Possible models range from state-supervised licensed venues to limited individual trading or holding-only access. These models would attract different levels of new demand for SOL.可能的模式包括由国家严格监管的持牌场所、有限度的个人交易，以及只能持有加密货币但不能在境内平台买卖。不同模式将带来不同程度的SOL新增需求。

SOL priceSOL价格

121 USD121美元

October 4, 20262026年10月4日

Third-quarter change第三季度涨幅

48 %48%

2026 Q32026年第三季度

Previous-week change此前一周变化

-2.6 %-2.6%

Week before October 4, 2026截至2026年10月4日前一周

The government could allow licensed venues, access for funds and financial firms, limited individual trading, or holding without domestic buying and selling.政府可能允许持牌场所、基金和金融机构参与、有限度个人交易，或允许持有但禁止在境内平台买卖。
Chee did not specify which regulatory model he expects.Chee没有说明他预计会采用哪一种监管模式。

Cause因果关系

Reopening may redirect existing demand重新开放可能只是转移现有需求

Chinese buyers have used indirect methods to access crypto despite the ban, and Binance once counted China as its largest market. Because the scale of these indirect flows is not reliably measured, the amount of genuinely new money from an official reopening remains uncertain.尽管存在禁令，中国买家多年来一直通过间接方式接触加密货币，Binance过去也曾将中国列为其最大市场。由于这些间接资金流的规模缺乏可靠测量，官方重新开放能带来的真正新增资金仍不确定。

Some demand that moves into legal channels may already exist in the market.转入合法渠道的部分需求可能已经存在于市场之中。
The article says there is no reliable measure of indirect crypto flows from China.文章称，目前没有可靠数据衡量来自中国的间接加密货币资金流。
Joseph Chee leads a company focused on buying and holding SOL, giving his company a potential benefit from a larger crypto market.Joseph Chee领导的公司专注于购买和持有SOL，因此加密货币市场扩大可能使该公司受益。

03Timeline时间线

2017 Beijing banned initial coin offerings and crypto fundraising.北京禁止首次代币发行和加密货币募资。
2021 China declared crypto transactions illegal and intensified its mining crackdown.中国宣布加密货币交易违法，并加大对挖矿活动的打击力度。
2023 Hong Kong introduced a licensing regime for retail crypto investors.香港推出面向零售加密货币投资者的牌照制度。
2026-10-04 The article reported that China had not announced changes to its crypto bans; SOL traded near $121.文章称，中国尚未宣布改变加密货币禁令；SOL价格接近121美元。

Key takeaway核心结论

A Chinese crypto reopening would not automatically produce a large influx into SOL because access could remain tightly restricted and some demand may already exist offshore.中国重新开放加密货币并不一定会为SOL带来大量资金流入，因为准入可能仍受到严格限制，而且部分需求可能已经存在于境外市场。

04What to Watch后续关注

Formal regulations from Chinese authorities that license crypto venues or open access to specific investor groups.中国监管部门是否出台正式规则，为加密货币交易场所发牌或向特定投资者群体开放准入。
Whether Hong Kong’s regulated market continues to serve as a policy testing ground.香港受监管市场是否继续充当政策试验场。
Whether any new mainland access model permits retail trading, limits activity, or allows holding only.未来的内地准入模式是允许零售交易、限制交易活动，还是仅允许持有。
Whether any policy change creates new SOL demand or mainly shifts existing buyers into official channels.政策变化带来的是否是SOL新增需求，还是主要将现有买家转入官方渠道。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

China has not announced a policy shift, so any reopening scenario remains speculative.中国尚未宣布政策转向，因此任何重新开放情景仍属推测。
The scale of Chinese crypto demand using indirect channels cannot be measured reliably.通过间接渠道进行的中国加密货币需求规模无法被可靠衡量。
Chee’s view comes from an executive whose company could benefit from stronger SOL demand.Chee的观点来自一位其公司可能受益于SOL需求上升的企业高管。

06Sources信息来源

Solana Co.'s Joseph Chee Tells the Wall Street Journal: China Will Find a Way to Manage Crypto. What Happens If China Reopens? - 24/7 Wall St.Solana Co.'s Joseph Chee Tells the Wall Street Journal: China Will Find a Way to Manage Crypto. What Happens If China Reopens? - 24/7 Wall St. 24/7 Wall St. · 2026-10-04

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