Malaysia inflation stays low as upstream cost pressures build马来西亚通胀维持低位，但上游成本压力上升

01The Story新闻事实

Malaysia recorded one of the region’s lowest inflation rates at 1.9% in August 2026, but producer price inflation rose above 10% in June and nearly 11% in August. The World Bank expects headline inflation to rise modestly to 2% this year, with subsidies limiting the impact on households. External demand supported growth, while investment and confidence remained weaker.马来西亚2026年8月通胀率为1.9%，处于区域较低水平，但生产者价格通胀在6月超过10%，8月接近11%。世界银行预计该国全年总体通胀率温和升至2%，补贴将限制通胀对家庭的传导。外部需求支持经济增长，但投资和信心仍然偏弱。

• Malaysia’s inflation rate was 1.9% in August 2026, compared with 2.5% in Thailand, 3.2% in Indonesia, 4.9% in Vietnam and 6.1% in the Philippines.马来西亚2026年8月通胀率为1.9%，低于泰国的2.5%、印度尼西亚的3.2%、越南的4.9%和菲律宾的6.1%。
• Producer price inflation moved from negative territory in December 2023 and February 2024 to above 10% in June 2026 and nearly 11% in August 2026.生产者价格通胀在2023年12月和2024年2月处于负值区间，随后升至2026年6月的超过10%及8月的接近11%。
• The World Bank projected Malaysia’s headline inflation to rise modestly to 2% in 2026, with subsidies limiting the pass-through of higher energy prices to households.世界银行预计马来西亚2026年总体通胀率温和升至2%，补贴将限制能源价格上涨向家庭的传导。
• Households earning less than RM3,000 a month experienced average inflation of 1.2% in the first half of 2026, below headline inflation each month during that period.月收入低于3,000令吉的家庭在2026年上半年平均面临1.2%的通胀率，并且每个月都低于总体通胀率。
• Private consumption growth increased from 4.7% in the first quarter to 4.8% in the second quarter, while private investment growth slowed from 7.8% to 4.3%.私人消费增速从第一季度的4.7%升至第二季度的4.8%，而私人投资增速从7.8%放缓至4.3%。

Malaysia’s current low consumer inflation is being supported by subsidies, but rising upstream costs could test that stability later in 2026.马来西亚当前较低的消费通胀受到补贴支持，但上游成本上升可能在2026年晚些时候考验这一稳定性。

024 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2023-12 Producer price inflation was in negative territory.生产者价格通胀处于负值区间。
2. 2024-02 Producer price inflation remained in negative territory.生产者价格通胀仍处于负值区间。
3. 2026-06 Producer price inflation rose above 10%.生产者价格通胀升至10%以上。
4. 2026-08 Malaysia’s headline inflation was 1.9%, while producer price inflation approached 11%.马来西亚总体通胀率为1.9%，生产者价格通胀接近11%。
5. 2026-10-06 The World Bank briefing highlighted rising upstream cost pressures and a potential later-year inflation risk.世界银行简报指出上游成本压力上升，并可能在年内稍后形成通胀风险。

Key takeaway核心结论

Malaysia’s low consumer inflation remains intact for now, but rising producer prices and weak confidence create risks for the outlook.马来西亚消费通胀目前仍处于低位，但生产者价格上升和信心疲弱为前景带来风险。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Whether producer price pressures pass through to headline inflation later in 2026.生产者价格压力是否会在2026年晚些时候传导至总体通胀。
2. Whether subsidies continue to limit the effect of higher energy prices on households.补贴是否继续限制能源价格上涨对家庭的影响。
3. Whether private investment growth and its share of GDP recover from current levels.私人投资增速及其占国内生产总值的比重能否从当前水平恢复。
4. Whether consumer sentiment and business confidence improve from their reported weak levels.消费者信心和商业信心能否从目前报道的疲弱水平改善。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• The source identifies rising upstream costs as a potential inflation risk but does not quantify how much they will affect consumer prices.消息来源将上游成本上升列为潜在通胀风险，但未量化其对消费价格的具体影响。
• The World Bank’s 2% inflation projection depends in part on subsidies limiting price pass-through.世界银行2%的通胀预测部分取决于补贴对价格传导的限制作用。
• The source reports weak consumer sentiment and business confidence but does not provide their numerical readings.消息来源称消费者信心和商业信心疲弱，但未提供具体数值。

06Sources信息来源

1. Malaysia's inflation among region's lowest, but upstream cost pressures rising - World Bank | The StarMalaysia's inflation among region's lowest, but upstream cost pressures rising - World Bank | The Star The Star · 2026-10-06

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