IMF warns cost-of-living crises can entrench inflation and poverty

01The Story新闻事实

IMF research says sharp food and energy price increases can keep inflation expectations elevated, worsen poverty and threaten economic stability. A model that accounts for poorer households’ higher exposure to necessities found inflation was 0.8 percentage point higher than the standard measure, implying 23 million more people fell below the extreme poverty line from 2021 to 2024.国际货币基金组织的研究称，食品和能源价格大幅上涨可能使通胀预期长期处于高位、加剧贫困并威胁经济稳定。一个 учиты到贫困家庭更易受生活必需品价格影响的模型显示，通胀率比标准指标高出0.8个百分点，这意味着2021年至2024年间跌入极端贫困线以下的人数比此前估计多2300万。

The IMF said near- and medium-term inflation expectations rose significantly during cost-of-living crises and remained above pre-crisis levels three years after a crisis began.国际货币基金组织表示，生活成本危机期间，短期和中期通胀预期显著上升，并在危机开始三年后仍高于危机前水平。
The new model showed a 0.8 percentage-point gap from the standard inflation measure.新模型显示，该指标与标准通胀指标之间存在0.8个百分点的差距。
The model suggested that 23 million more people fell below the extreme poverty line from 2021 to 2024 than previously calculated.该模型显示，2021年至2024年间跌入极端贫困线以下的人数比此前计算多2300万。
The IMF said targeted transfers were the most effective way to protect vulnerable people while preserving price signals.国际货币基金组织表示，有针对性的转移支付是在保护弱势群体的同时保留价格信号的最有效方式。
The IMF said price controls and lower consumption taxes could cost three to six times more to implement, while producer subsidies could cost 22 times as much.国际货币基金组织表示，价格管制和降低消费税的实施成本可能是有针对性措施的三至六倍，而生产者补贴的成本可能高达22倍。

Cost-of-living shocks can create lasting inflation and poverty effects, making the design and timing of government support important for economic stability.生活成本冲击可能对通胀和贫困产生持久影响，因此政府援助的设计和时机对经济稳定至关重要。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Consequence影响推演

Inflation expectations persist通胀预期持续偏高

Inflation expectations increased during cost-of-living crises and remained elevated three years after their onset. Five-year-ahead expectations initially rose modestly but also stayed high, potentially contributing to higher interest rates.生活成本危机期间，通胀预期上升，并在危机开始三年后仍处于高位。五年期通胀预期起初仅温和上升，但同样持续偏高，可能推动利率上升。

Inflation gap versus standard measure与标准通胀指标的差距

2021-20242021年至2024年0.8 percentage points

Persistence after crisis onset危机开始后的持续时间3 years

Near- and medium-term inflation expectations remained significantly above pre-crisis levels three years after a crisis began.危机开始三年后，短期和中期通胀预期仍显著高于危机前水平。
Higher inflation expectations could result in interest rate increases.更高的通胀预期可能导致利率上升。

Comparison对比

Poverty measurement changes贫困测算发生变化

Because poorer households spend a larger share of their budgets on daily necessities, the IMF’s new model captures their higher exposure to food and energy price increases.由于贫困家庭将更大比例的预算用于日常必需品，国际货币基金组织的新模型纳入了他们对食品和能源价格上涨的更高暴露度。

Additional people below the extreme poverty line额外跌入极端贫困线以下的人数

2021-20242021年至2024年23 million people

The model suggested 23 million more people fell below the extreme poverty line than previously calculated.该模型显示，跌入极端贫困线以下的人数比此前计算多2300万。
The IMF said cost-of-living crises reduce living standards and worsen inequality.国际货币基金组织表示，生活成本危机会降低生活水平并加剧不平等。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Targeted support versus broad subsidies定向援助与广泛补贴之比较

The IMF favors targeted transfers because they protect vulnerable households while preserving price signals. Broad price measures can be more expensive, and producer subsidies may benefit consumers abroad when subsidized goods are exported.国际货币基金组织更支持有针对性的转移支付，因为这种方式既能保护弱势家庭，又能保留价格信号。广泛的价格干预可能成本更高，而生产者补贴可能因补贴商品出口而让海外消费者受益。

Cost multiplier for price controls and lower consumption taxes价格管制和降低消费税的成本倍数

IMF research国际货币基金组织研究3 times

IMF research国际货币基金组织研究22 times

Targeted transfers were identified as the best way to protect the most vulnerable while preserving price signals.研究认为，有针对性的转移支付是在保护最弱势群体的同时保留价格信号的最佳方式。
Egypt and Indonesia had begun shifting from broad subsidies toward targeted cash transfers.埃及和印度尼西亚已开始从广泛补贴转向有针对性的现金转移支付。

Future signal前瞻信号

Growth remains below recent averages经济增长仍低于近期平均水平

The IMF still expected global output to expand by about 3% in 2026, but that would be below the 3.5% average growth recorded in 2024 and 2025. The forecast also faced risks linked to the Middle East war and its regional spillovers.国际货币基金组织仍预计2026年全球产出将增长约3%，但低于2024年和2025年3.5%的平均增速。该预测还面临中东战争及其地区外溢影响带来的风险。

Expected global growth预计全球经济增长

20262026年3 %

The IMF’s expected 2026 growth rate would match its July forecast but remain below the average growth rate in 2024 and 2025.国际货币基金组织对2026年的增长预期与7月预测一致，但仍低于2024年和2025年的平均增速。
The IMF cautioned that risks to the global economy remained high.国际货币基金组织警告，全球经济面临的风险仍然很高。

03Timeline时间线

2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was followed by recurring economic and social stress linked to price surges.俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，与价格上涨相关的经济和社会压力反复出现。
2026-10-06 The IMF released research on government responses to price surges and the lasting effects of cost-of-living crises.国际货币基金组织发布关于政府应对价格上涨以及生活成本危机长期影响的研究。

Key takeaway核心结论

The IMF’s research links food and energy price shocks to persistent inflation expectations, deeper poverty and difficult policy trade-offs.国际货币基金组织的研究将食品和能源价格冲击与持续偏高的通胀预期、加深的贫困以及艰难的政策权衡联系起来。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether governments shift further from broad subsidies toward targeted cash transfers.各国政府是否进一步从广泛补贴转向有针对性的现金转移支付。
Whether inflation expectations remain elevated as cost-of-living crises continue to affect price stability.随着生活成本危机继续影响价格稳定，通胀预期是否会持续处于高位。
How the Middle East war and its spillovers affect the IMF’s 2026 global growth outlook.中东战争及其外溢影响将如何影响国际货币基金组织对2026年全球增长的展望。
Whether higher oil prices, debt levels and borrowing costs further pressure low-income countries.更高的油价、债务水平和借贷成本是否会进一步加大低收入国家的压力。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The IMF’s global growth outlook depends partly on how the Middle East war develops, while the article says the conflict has escalated and spread into neighboring countries.国际货币基金组织的全球增长展望部分取决于中东战争的发展，而报道指出冲突已升级并蔓延至邻国。
The IMF research was released ahead of the forthcoming World Economic Outlook, which was due to be released the following week.这项国际货币基金组织研究发布时，正式的《世界经济展望》预计将在下一周公布。
The article does not specify the absolute level of the extreme poverty line or the exact standard inflation measure used for the comparison.报道没有说明极端贫困线的绝对水平，也没有具体说明用于比较的标准通胀指标。

06Sources信息来源

Cost-of-living crises have lasting impact on inflation expectations, poverty, IMF says - KitcoCost-of-living crises have lasting impact on inflation expectations, poverty, IMF says - Kitco Reuters · 2026-10-06

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