South Korea’s October Calendar Highlights Rates, Growth and Trade

01The Story新闻事实

South Korea’s October economic calendar includes a central-bank interest-rate decision, GDP growth estimates, inflation data, labour-market figures and industrial activity indicators. The schedule also features government bond auctions across maturities, while listed forecasts include 1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the third quarter and a 3.25% interest rate.韩国10月经济日历包括央行利率决定、国内生产总值增长初值、通胀数据、就业数据和工业活动指标。日程还安排了不同期限的政府债券发行，列出的预测包括第三季度环比国内生产总值增长1%以及3.25%的利率。

Foreign exchange reserves were listed at $440.56 billion for September, compared with $442.28 billion previously.9月外汇储备列为4405.6亿美元，前值为4422.8亿美元。
The October 22 interest-rate decision has a listed previous rate of 3% and a forecast of 3.25%.10月22日利率决定的前值为3%，列出的预测值为3.25%。
Third-quarter GDP growth is forecast at 1% quarter on quarter and 3.8% year on year, against listed previous figures of 0.6% and 3.7%, respectively.第三季度国内生产总值预计环比增长1%、同比增长3.8%，列出的前值分别为0.6%和3.7%。
September industrial production is forecast to fall 4.8% month on month and 2.2% year on year, while retail sales are forecast to decline 1.8% month on month.9月工业生产预计环比下降4.8%、同比下降2.2%，零售销售预计环比下降1.8%。
The calendar lists October exports growth of 83.5% year on year and a trade balance of $49.85 billion, without providing actual results.日历列出10月出口同比增长83.5%以及贸易顺差498.5亿美元，但未提供实际结果。

The calendar sets up a test of whether stronger listed growth and trade expectations can coexist with weaker projected industrial and retail activity.这份日历将检验较强的增长和贸易预期，能否与工业生产和零售活动的预期走弱并存。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Monetary policy and sovereign borrowing货币政策与主权融资

The schedule combines the October 22 interest-rate decision with KTB auctions ranging from two years to 50 years. This places the policy-rate outlook alongside government borrowing costs across the yield curve.日程将10月22日的利率决定与两年至50年期限的韩国国债发行安排放在一起，令政策利率前景与整个收益率曲线上的政府融资成本形成关联。

Interest-rate decision forecast利率决定预测

October 22, 20262026年10月22日3.25 %

October 7, 20262026年10月7日4.63 %

October 16, 20262026年10月16日4.72 %

KTB auctions are listed for maturities including two, three, five, 10, 20, 30 and 50 years.日历列出了两年、三年、五年、10年、20年、30年和50年期韩国国债发行。
The 10-year KTB auction has a listed previous yield of 4.510%.10年期韩国国债发行的列出前值收益率为4.510%。

Contradiction矛盾之处

Growth expectations versus domestic activity增长预期与国内活动

The calendar lists positive third-quarter GDP growth forecasts, but projected September industrial production and retail sales are negative. The releases will clarify whether the quarterly growth outlook is consistent with the weaker monthly indicators.日历列出的第三季度国内生产总值增长预测为正，但9月工业生产和零售销售预测为负。相关数据将显示季度增长前景是否与较弱的月度指标一致。

GDP growth, quarter on quarter国内生产总值环比增长

Q3 2026 forecast2026年第三季度预测1 %

September 2026 forecast2026年9月预测-4.8 %

September 2026 forecast2026年9月预测-1.8 %

Third-quarter year-on-year GDP growth is forecast at 3.8%, compared with a listed previous figure of 3.7%.第三季度国内生产总值同比增长预计为3.8%，列出的前值为3.7%。
Business confidence for October is listed at 79, while consumer confidence is listed at 106.6.10月企业信心指数列为79，消费者信心指数列为106.6。

Comparison对比

Prices, labour and external accounts价格、就业与外部账户

The calendar points to elevated year-on-year export and import prices, a low listed unemployment rate and substantial expected current-account and trade surpluses. These indicators will provide a broad view of external demand, prices and labour conditions.日历显示出口和进口价格同比增幅较高，列出的失业率较低，并预计经常账户和贸易顺差规模较大。这些指标将从外需、价格和就业状况等方面提供整体观察。

Export prices, year on year出口价格同比变化

September 2026 forecast2026年9月预测45 %

September 2026 forecast2026年9月预测15.3 %

September 2026 forecast2026年9月预测2.9 %

August 20262026年8月45 USD billion

The listed forecast for September producer-price inflation is 0.2% month on month and 7.5% year on year.列出的9月生产者价格通胀预测为环比0.2%、同比7.5%。
The October 15 calendar entries list export prices at 45% year on year and import prices at 15.3% year on year.10月15日的日历条目列出出口价格同比增长45%，进口价格同比增长15.3%。

03Timeline时间线

2026-10-05 September foreign-exchange reserves are listed at $440.56 billion.9月外汇储备列为4405.6亿美元。
2026-10-22 South Korea’s interest-rate decision is scheduled, with a listed forecast of 3.25%.韩国利率决定安排在这一天公布，列出的预测值为3.25%。
2026-10-26 Advance third-quarter GDP growth figures are scheduled for release.第三季度国内生产总值增长初值安排在这一天公布。
2026-10-29 September industrial production and retail-sales figures are scheduled.9月工业生产和零售销售数据安排在这一天公布。
2026-11-01 October exports and the trade balance are scheduled, with listed figures of 83.5% and $49.85 billion.10月出口和贸易余额安排在这一天公布，列出的数值分别为83.5%和498.5亿美元。

Key takeaway核心结论

South Korea’s October data calendar presents a mixed outlook: stronger listed GDP and trade expectations alongside projected weakness in industrial production and retail sales.韩国10月数据日历呈现出混合前景：国内生产总值和贸易预期较强，但工业生产和零售销售预计走弱。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether the October 22 interest-rate decision matches the listed 3.25% forecast.10月22日利率决定是否符合3.25%的列出预测。
Whether advance third-quarter GDP growth reaches the listed 1% quarter-on-quarter forecast.第三季度国内生产总值增长初值是否达到环比1%的列出预测。
Whether September industrial production and retail sales confirm the projected monthly declines.9月工业生产和零售销售是否证实环比下降的预测。
Whether the scheduled October trade data support the listed export-growth and trade-balance figures.10月贸易数据是否支持列出的出口增速和贸易余额数值。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

Most upcoming entries provide forecasts or previous figures rather than actual results, so the calendar does not establish the eventual outcomes.多数即将公布的条目提供的是预测值或前值，而非实际结果，因此日历无法确定最终数据。
The source does not explain the reasons behind the projected divergence between quarterly GDP growth and monthly industrial and retail indicators.来源未解释季度国内生产总值增长与月度工业及零售指标预测出现差异的原因。

06Sources信息来源

South Korea CalendarSouth Korea Calendar Trading Economics · 2026-10-06

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