Solar could save Southeast Asia US$45.4 billion versus planned gas以太阳能替代计划中的天然气项目，东南亚或可节省454亿美元

01The Story新闻事实

A Zero Carbon Analytics study says Southeast Asian countries could save about US$45.4 billion by using solar capacity to generate the electricity expected from nearly 49 GW of planned gas projects. Malaysia accounts for 9.6 GW of the planned gas expansion. Across five countries, solar generation was already 50 per cent cheaper than gas in 2025, with the gap projected to reach 84 per cent by 2030.Zero Carbon Analytics的一项研究称，东南亚国家若用太阳能发电替代近49吉瓦计划中的天然气项目，可节省约454亿美元。马来西亚占其中计划新增天然气容量的9.6吉瓦。在五个国家中，2025年太阳能发电成本平均已比天然气低50%，到2030年差距预计将扩大至84%。

• Nearly 49 GW of gas capacity is under construction or in pre-construction across Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、菲律宾和越南共有近49吉瓦天然气发电容量处于建设前或建设阶段。
• Malaysia accounts for approximately 9.6 GW of the planned gas expansion, which would increase its gas capacity by 53 per cent compared with 2025 levels.马来西亚约占计划新增天然气容量的9.6吉瓦，完成后其天然气容量将较2025年水平增加53%。
• The planned gas projects across the five countries could generate around 263 TWh of electricity annually if completed.如果建成，五国计划中的天然气项目每年可发电约263太瓦时。
• Solar generation costs were 50 per cent lower than gas on average in 2025, and the difference is projected to widen to 84 per cent by 2030.2025年太阳能发电成本平均比天然气低50%，到2030年这一差距预计将扩大至84%。
• Malaysia introduced a 2024 scheme allowing renewable energy producers to supply corporate buyers through the national grid.马来西亚在2024年推出一项计划，允许可再生能源生产商通过国家电网向企业买家供电。

Falling renewable generation costs are challenging the economic case for new gas infrastructure, including Malaysia’s planned expansion.可再生能源发电成本下降，正在削弱包括马来西亚计划扩张在内的新天然气基础设施的经济合理性。

023 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2024 Malaysia introduced a scheme enabling renewable energy producers to supply corporate buyers through the national grid.马来西亚推出计划，允许可再生能源生产商通过国家电网向企业买家供电。
2. 2025 Solar generation costs were 50 per cent lower than gas on average across the five countries.五国太阳能发电成本平均比天然气低50%。
3. 2026 Vietnam expanded its direct power purchase framework to include data centres and electric vehicle charging stations.越南扩大直接购电框架，将数据中心和电动汽车充电站纳入其中。
4. 2030 The average solar cost advantage over gas is projected to widen to 84 per cent.太阳能相对天然气的平均成本优势预计将扩大至84%。

Key takeaway核心结论

Malaysia’s planned gas expansion faces a growing cost challenge as solar becomes cheaper and corporate renewable procurement expands.随着太阳能成本下降、企业可再生能源采购扩大，马来西亚计划中的天然气扩张正面临日益加大的成本挑战。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Whether Malaysia’s planned 9.6 GW of gas capacity proceeds as renewable generation costs continue to fall.随着可再生能源发电成本持续下降，马来西亚计划中的9.6吉瓦天然气容量是否继续推进。
2. How Malaysia’s 2024 grid-based corporate renewable procurement scheme develops.马来西亚2024年基于国家电网的企业可再生能源采购计划将如何发展。
3. Whether companies expanding data centres increase demand for renewable power agreements in the region.在区域内扩建数据中心的企业是否会增加对可再生电力协议的需求。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• The US$45.4 billion estimate is based on replacing planned gas generation with solar capacity and is not a measure of consumer electricity bill savings.454亿美元的估算基于用太阳能容量替代计划中的天然气发电，并不代表消费者电费可节省的金额。
• The source does not state whether Malaysia’s planned gas projects will be cancelled, delayed or replaced by solar.消息来源没有说明马来西亚计划中的天然气项目是否会被取消、推迟或由太阳能替代。
• The study’s cost comparison does not include a retail electricity tariff comparison.该研究的成本比较不包括零售电价比较。

06Sources信息来源

1. Southeast Asia could save US$45.4 billion with solar instead of planned gas projects: study | News | Eco-Business | Asia PacificSoutheast Asia could save US$45.4 billion with solar instead of planned gas projects: study | News | Eco-Business | Asia Pacific Eco-Business · 2026-10-06

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