Why India's stock market is falling despite strong economic growth — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

Why India's stock market is falling despite strong economic growth印度经济强劲增长之际股市为何下跌

India's economy is growing at more than 7%, but its benchmark stock indices have suffered eight consecutive weeks of losses, the longest such streak in 25 years. Higher energy costs, global interest rates, a weaker rupee, relatively high valuations and limited exposure to profitable AI industries are weighing on investor sentiment, while foreign investors have withdrawn heavily.印度经济增速超过7%，但基准股指已连续八周下跌，创25年来最长跌势。能源成本上升、全球利率走高、卢比走弱、估值相对偏高，以及印度在高盈利人工智能产业中的参与度有限，都在打击投资者情绪；与此同时，外国投资者已大幅撤资。

BBC 5 Oct 2026 2026年10月5日

9090

Crude oil price range原油价格区间

66

Nifty annualised dollar return over the past decadeNifty过去十年的美元年化回报

4040

Foreign institutional withdrawals over the past two years过去两年外国机构投资者撤资规模

01The Story新闻事实

India's economy is growing at more than 7%, but its benchmark stock indices have suffered eight consecutive weeks of losses, the longest such streak in 25 years. Higher energy costs, global interest rates, a weaker rupee, relatively high valuations and limited exposure to profitable AI industries are weighing on investor sentiment, while foreign investors have withdrawn heavily.印度经济增速超过7%，但基准股指已连续八周下跌，创25年来最长跌势。能源成本上升、全球利率走高、卢比走弱、估值相对偏高，以及印度在高盈利人工智能产业中的参与度有限，都在打击投资者情绪；与此同时，外国投资者已大幅撤资。

  • The Sensex and Nifty have recorded losses for eight consecutive weeks, their longest losing streak in 25 years, according to Reuters.据路透社报道，Sensex和Nifty已连续八周下跌，创25年来最长连续下跌纪录。
  • Indian investors in the Nifty have seen their wealth decline by about 15% this year, compared with a 62% return for South Korea's Kospi since January.今年投资Nifty的印度投资者财富缩水约15%；相比之下，韩国Kospi指数自年初以来上涨了62%。
  • Foreign institutional investors withdrew $40bn from Indian markets over the past two years, according to Bernstein Research.据Bernstein Research数据，过去两年外国机构投资者从印度市场撤出了400亿美元。
  • Domestic mutual-fund assets under management grew from about $125bn in 2016 to about $900bn this year, while the number of Indians investing in stocks and mutual funds exceeded 150 million.印度国内共同基金管理资产规模从2016年的约1250亿美元增至今年的约9000亿美元，投资股票和共同基金的印度人数量超过1.5亿。
  • Crude oil prices have remained between $90 and $100 a barrel as disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz entered its eighth month.随着霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻进入第八个月，原油价格一直维持在每桶90至100美元之间。
  • India imports more than 90% of its energy requirements, with nearly half of its crude oil imports and a large share of LPG and LNG shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.印度超过90%的能源需求依赖进口，其中近一半原油进口以及相当大比例的液化石油气和液化天然气运输经过霍尔木兹海峡。

India's strong headline growth has not translated into comparable stock-market returns because external shocks, currency losses and gaps in future-oriented industries are offsetting economic momentum.印度经济的强劲增长未能转化为相应的股市回报，因为外部冲击、汇率损失以及面向未来产业的不足抵消了经济增长动能。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Cause因果关系

External shocks are raising the cost of growth外部冲击正在推高增长成本

Higher oil prices threaten inflation, corporate margins and earnings in an economy that imports more than 90% of its energy requirements. Rising global interest rates also make safer assets such as US government bonds more attractive than emerging-market equities.对于超过90%能源需求依赖进口的经济体而言，油价上涨会威胁通胀、企业利润率和盈利。全球利率上升也使美国国债等较安全资产相较新兴市场股票更具吸引力。

Crude oil price range原油价格区间

Current period in source来源所述当前时期90 USD per barrel

Current period in source来源所述当前时期90 %

Current period in source来源所述当前时期5 %

  • Crude prices have hovered between $90 and $100 a barrel during the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻期间，原油价格一直在每桶90至100美元之间徘徊。
  • The effective yield on US government bonds is above 5%, close to a 25-year high.美国政府债券有效收益率超过5%，接近25年来的高位。
Comparison对比

Currency and valuation weaken India's relative appeal汇率和估值削弱印度市场的相对吸引力

A weaker rupee reduces dollar returns for foreign investors. Although Indian stocks are cheaper than their own ten-year average, they remain expensive relative to earnings and compared with some emerging-market peers.卢比走弱降低了外国投资者以美元计价的回报。尽管印度股票的估值低于自身过去十年的平均水平，但相对于盈利以及部分新兴市场同业，估值仍然偏高。

Nifty annualised dollar return over the past decadeNifty过去十年的美元年化回报

Past decade过去十年6 %

20262026年-15 %

20262026年62 %

  • Foreign investors have suffered in currency-adjusted dollar terms because of the fall in the rupee.由于卢比贬值，外国投资者以汇率调整后的美元计算遭受了损失。
  • Indian stocks have become cheaper over the past two years but remain expensive relative to earnings.印度股票过去两年的估值有所下降，但相对于盈利仍然偏高。
Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Foreign capital is leaving while domestic money cushions the market外资撤离之际，国内资金为市场提供缓冲

Foreign institutional selling has been substantial, but domestic mutual-fund and retail flows have prevented an even sharper decline. That also means more household savings are exposed to the effects of a deeper correction.外国机构投资者的抛售规模显著，但国内共同基金和散户资金流入避免了市场进一步大幅下跌。这也意味着，更多家庭储蓄将暴露于更深度市场调整的影响之下。

Foreign institutional withdrawals over the past two years过去两年外国机构投资者撤资规模

Past two years过去两年40 USD bn

This year今年900 USD bn

This year今年150 million people

  • Net foreign investment in Indian markets over the past decade is nearing zero.过去十年外国投资者投入印度市场的净资金规模已接近零。
  • Domestic institutional and retail money has helped the market avoid a sharper fall.国内机构和散户资金帮助市场避免了更大幅度的下跌。
Future signal前瞻信号

The missing AI segment limits future market leadership人工智能板块缺位限制未来市场领导力

India has investments in data centres and chip fabrication, but has not produced a global AI company comparable to OpenAI, Anthropic or China's DeepSeek. Bernstein said emerging areas such as space, defence, semiconductors and deep tech remain too small to materially affect capital allocation for much of this decade.印度正在数据中心和芯片制造领域投资，但尚未产生可与OpenAI、Anthropic或中国DeepSeek相比的全球人工智能企业。Bernstein表示，航天、国防、半导体和深科技等新兴领域在本十年大部分时间内仍太小，难以实质性影响资本配置。

  • Bernstein said many large Indian companies represent an earlier economic era and are focused on consolidating their past rather than investing in the future.Bernstein表示，许多印度大型企业代表着较早的经济时代，重点是巩固过去，而不是投资未来。
  • Foreign investor interest is expected to return meaningfully only if India builds globally competitive industries in emerging areas.只有当印度在新兴领域建立具有全球竞争力的产业，外国投资者的兴趣才可能真正回归。

Key takeaway核心结论

India's market weakness reflects a gap between strong aggregate growth and the factors that determine international equity returns, including energy exposure, currency performance, valuations and access to AI-led profits.印度股市疲弱反映出总体经济增长与决定国际股票回报的因素之间存在差距，包括能源风险敞口、汇率表现、估值水平以及获取人工智能产业利润的能力。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices fall enough to support foreign portfolio inflows.地缘政治紧张局势是否缓和、能源价格是否回落到足以支持外国证券投资流入的水平。
  2. Whether higher energy costs and trade tensions begin to weaken corporate performance.能源成本上升和贸易紧张局势是否开始削弱企业表现。
  3. Whether Indian households maintain their monthly mutual-fund investment flows during a deeper correction.如果市场出现更深度调整，印度家庭是否仍会维持每月共同基金投资流入。
  4. Whether India's investments in space, defence, semiconductors and deep tech grow large enough to attract foreign institutional funds.印度在航天、国防、半导体和深科技领域的投资能否扩大到足以吸引外国机构资金。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The duration of the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear.霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻将持续多久仍不明确。
  • It is uncertain whether the resilience of Indian household investment flows will survive a deeper market correction.印度家庭投资资金流的韧性是否能经受更深度的市场调整仍是未知数。
  • The timing and scale of a meaningful return by foreign investors remain uncertain.外国投资者何时以及以多大规模真正回归仍存在不确定性。

06Sources信息来源

  1. Nifty: Five reasons India's markets are sinking even when its economy is growing - BBCNifty: Five reasons India's markets are sinking even when its economy is growing - BBC BBC · 2026-10-05

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