How the EU’s Industrial Rules Could Reshape Central Europe

01The Story新闻事实

The EU is shifting toward stronger industrial protections, local-content rules and trade defenses as it responds to Chinese overcapacity. Central and Eastern European countries could benefit from reshoring and expanded CBAM coverage, but high energy costs, limited fiscal space and divergent views on tariffs may restrict their gains. The region is urged to coordinate its position and attract private investment.面对中国过剩产能，欧盟正转向更强的产业保护、本地含量要求和贸易防御措施。中东欧国家可能从产业回流和扩大碳边境调节机制覆盖范围中受益，但高能源成本、有限的财政空间以及对关税的分歧可能限制其收益。文章呼吁该地区协调立场并吸引私人投资。

Industrial electricity in the EU averaged €0.199 per kWh in 2024, compared with €0.082 in China and €0.075 in the United States.2024年，欧盟工业用电平均价格为每千瓦时0.199欧元，而中国为0.082欧元，美国为0.075欧元。
Between 2019 and 2023, industrial electricity prices rose 171% in Hungary and 137% in Poland, compared with 21% in the United States.2019年至2023年，匈牙利工业电价上涨171%，波兰上涨137%，美国则上涨21%。
The Industrial Accelerator Act is intended to make the February 2025 Clean Industrial Deal’s objectives binding, including local-content requirements for public tenders and subsidies.《工业加速法案》旨在将2025年2月《清洁工业协议》的目标转化为具有约束力的规则，包括公共招标和补贴中的本地含量要求。
The European Commission’s December 2025 proposal would extend CBAM to around 180 downstream products from 2028.欧盟委员会2025年12月的提案将从2028年起把碳边境调节机制扩大至约180种下游产品。
A new steel regulation halves quotas and doubles out-of-quota duties to 50%, while other metal inputs may be considered next.新的钢铁监管措施将配额减半，并把超配额关税提高一倍至50%；其他金属投入品可能随后纳入考虑。

EU industrial protection could create opportunities for Central Europe, but high costs and unequal fiscal capacity may determine which regions capture the resulting investment.欧盟产业保护可能为中欧创造机会，但高成本和不均衡的财政能力将决定哪些地区能够获得由此产生的投资。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Comparison对比

Energy costs weaken competitiveness能源成本削弱竞争力

Central and Eastern European manufacturers face energy-cost pressures within an already expensive EU market. The sharp increases recorded in Hungary and Poland contrast with much lower industrial electricity prices in China and the United States.中东欧制造商在本已昂贵的欧盟市场中面临能源成本压力。匈牙利和波兰工业电价的大幅上涨，与中国和美国较低的工业电价形成对比。

EU industrial electricity price欧盟工业电价

20242024年0.199 €/kWh

20242024年0.082 €/kWh

20242024年0.075 €/kWh

2019–20232019年至2023年171 %

Labor costs are now much higher in the region than in China and in countries such as Morocco.该地区的劳动力成本目前已远高于中国以及摩洛哥等国家。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Fiscal capacity may shape the winners财政能力可能决定受益者

Poland and Romania have high and growing deficits, limiting their ability to fund the infrastructure and subsidies needed to benefit from reshoring. This creates a risk that member states with greater fiscal room could attract more production through national subsidies.波兰和罗马尼亚的财政赤字较高且不断扩大，限制了两国为承接产业回流而投资基础设施和提供补贴的能力。这可能导致财政空间更大的成员国通过国家补贴吸引更多生产活动。

CEE countries generally have less fiscal space and borrow at higher rates than Western member states.中东欧国家总体上比西欧成员国拥有更少的财政空间，借贷利率也更高。
The article says tariffs, taxes and subsidies will not be sufficient without private investment, while private capital may also need an economic-security framework.文章指出，如果没有私人投资，关税、税收和补贴并不足够；与此同时，私人资本可能也需要经济安全框架作为市场底线。

Contradiction矛盾之处

Industrial rules create both protection and cost risks工业规则兼具保护和增成本风险

The Industrial Accelerator Act could support local production through public procurement, subsidies and screened foreign investment. However, Central and Eastern European governments fear that the rules could raise producer costs without creating enough demand, especially where national subsidies favor firms in larger Western economies.《工业加速法案》可能通过公共采购、补贴以及经过审查的外国投资来支持本地生产。但中东欧政府担心，这些规则可能在无法创造足够需求的情况下推高生产商成本，尤其是在国家补贴偏向西欧大国企业的情况下。

The article proposes considering “Made with Europe” rather than a strict “Made in Europe” requirement to include trusted trading partners.文章提出，可考虑以“欧洲协作制造”取代严格的“欧洲制造”要求，以纳入可信赖的贸易伙伴。
Competition rules may need updating to prevent large member states from directing national subsidies exclusively to national firms.竞争规则可能需要更新，以防止大成员国将国家补贴完全用于本国企业。

Future signal前瞻信号

CBAM may strengthen the region’s position碳边境调节机制或可提升该地区地位

Expanding CBAM to downstream products could help Central European mid-stream manufacturers because imported inputs are already covered while many finished goods are not. The region still needs greater coordination on Chinese tariffs and safeguards, as national positions remain divided.将碳边境调节机制扩大至下游产品，可能帮助中欧中游制造商，因为进口投入品已受到覆盖，而许多制成品尚未纳入。由于各国对中国关税和保障措施的立场仍然分歧明显，该地区仍需加强协调。

Downstream products proposed for CBAM coverage拟纳入碳边境调节机制的下游产品数量

from 2028自2028年起180 products

new regulation新规50 %

Warsaw supports extending CBAM to downstream products, while views on broader cross-sector tariffs on Chinese imports vary across the region.华沙支持将碳边境调节机制扩大至下游产品，但该地区对更广泛的中国进口跨行业关税看法不一。
Warsaw is described as hawkish on cross-sector tariffs, Prague’s position is constrained by the importance of the car industry, and Hungary remains highly skeptical.文章称，华沙在跨行业关税问题上立场强硬；布拉格受到汽车产业重要性的制约；匈牙利仍持高度怀疑态度。

03Timeline时间线

2024 The EU introduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, while industrial electricity prices were measured across the EU, China and the United States.欧盟对中国电动汽车推出关税措施；同年，文章比较了欧盟、中国和美国的工业电价。
2025-02 The Clean Industrial Deal was published as the policy basis that the Industrial Accelerator Act is intended to make binding.《清洁工业协议》发布，成为《工业加速法案》拟转化为约束性规则的政策基础。
2025-12 The European Commission proposed extending CBAM to around 180 downstream products.欧盟委员会提议将碳边境调节机制扩大至约180种下游产品。
2028 The proposed extension of CBAM to downstream products is scheduled to begin.拟议的下游产品碳边境调节机制扩围计划从这一年开始实施。

Key takeaway核心结论

Central Europe can benefit from the EU’s industrial turn only if stronger trade defenses are matched by affordable energy, fair subsidy rules, fiscal capacity and regional coordination.只有当更强的贸易防御措施与可负担的能源、公平的补贴规则、财政能力和区域协调相配合时，中欧才能从欧盟的产业政策转向中受益。

04What to Watch后续关注

How the Industrial Accelerator Act develops through the legislative process, including local-content and foreign-investment provisions.关注《工业加速法案》在立法程序中的推进情况，包括本地含量和外国投资条款。
Whether Central and Eastern European governments coordinate positions on CBAM, safeguards and potential cross-sector tariffs on Chinese goods.关注中东欧政府是否会就碳边境调节机制、保障措施以及潜在的中国商品跨行业关税协调立场。
Whether CBAM’s proposed expansion to downstream products improves the competitiveness of the region’s mid-stream manufacturers.关注碳边境调节机制拟扩大至下游产品后，是否会提升该地区中游制造商的竞争力。
How negotiations on the seven-year EU budget beginning in 2028 address innovation, advanced technologies and industrial support.关注从2028年开始的七年期欧盟预算谈判将如何安排创新、先进技术和产业支持。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

It remains unclear whether EU industrial rules will generate sufficient demand for Central European producers or mainly increase their compliance costs.目前尚不清楚欧盟工业规则能否为中欧生产商创造足够需求，还是主要增加其合规成本。
The extent and design of a possible “European 301” remain under debate.潜在的“欧洲301条款”的范围和设计仍在讨论之中。
The article does not establish whether Central and Eastern European governments can overcome their differing positions on tariffs toward China.文章没有确定中东欧政府能否克服其在对华关税问题上的不同立场。

06Sources信息来源

Making the EU’s new industrial rulebook work for Central Europe - Atlantic CouncilMaking the EU’s new industrial rulebook work for Central Europe - Atlantic Council Atlantic Council · 2026-10-01

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