Fed Swap Traders Price 31% Chance of July Rate Hike Under Warsh — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

Fed Swap Traders Price 31% Chance of July Rate Hike Under Warsh沃什主导美联储 7月加息概率升至31%

Interest rate swap traders price a 31% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the July 28–29 meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh ended forward guidance after taking office in May 2026. All 76 surveyed economists expect rates to remain at 3.5%–3.75%.利率掉期交易员预计美联储7月28-29日加息25个基点的概率升至31%。主席沃什于2026年5月就任后废除前瞻性指引。受访的76名经济学家一致预计利率维持在3.5%-3.75%。

中国能源网 23 Jul 2026 2026年7月23日

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Pre-meeting market consensus alignment会前市场预期一致度

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July 2026 Rate Hike Probability2026年7月加息概率

3131

July Rate Hike Expectation7月加息概率预期

01The Story新闻事实

Interest rate swap traders price a 31% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the July 28–29 meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh ended forward guidance after taking office in May 2026. All 76 surveyed economists expect rates to remain at 3.5%–3.75%.利率掉期交易员预计美联储7月28-29日加息25个基点的概率升至31%。主席沃什于2026年5月就任后废除前瞻性指引。受访的76名经济学家一致预计利率维持在3.5%-3.75%。

  • Interest rate swaps price a 31% chance of a 25 bps rate hike and a 69% chance of a pause.利率掉期合约显示7月加息25个基点概率为31%，维持利率不变概率为69%。
  • Kevin Warsh abolished preset forward guidance upon taking office as Fed Chair in May 2026.凯文·沃什于2026年5月就任美联储主席，并废除预示利率走势的前瞻性指���。
  • All 76 economists surveyed expect the target rate range to remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.受访的76位经济学家全数预计美���储7月将联邦基金利率维持在3.5%-3.75%。
  • Swap markets fully price in a 25 bps hike by September 2026 and two hikes by March 2027.掉期市场已完全定价9月底前加息25个基点，并显示2027年3月底前加息两次。

Removing forward guidance forces markets to price economic shocks directly, expanding the gap between market derivatives and traditional economist consensus.美联储取消前瞻性指引迫使交易员直接定价宏观冲击，加剧了衍生品市场与传统经济学研判的分歧。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Historical context历史脉络

Shift in Federal Reserve Communication Strategy美联储沟通策略转变

The Powell era maintained explicit guidance that unified market expectations, whereas Warsh restored policy opacity.鲍威尔时期保持明确前瞻指引以统一市场预期，而沃什恢复了政策悬念。

Pre-meeting market consensus alignment会前市场预期一致度

July 20262026年7月69 % (highest single outcome)

  • In September 2024, markets debated between a 25 bps and 50 bps cut before Powell opted for 50 bps.2024年9月市场曾争议降息25还是50个基点，鲍威尔最终选择降息50个基点。
  • Bianco Research states that 20% to 40% probability fog will become routine without guidance.Bianco Research指出取消指引后，20%至40%的模糊概率定价将成为常态。
Cause因果关系

Geopolitical Resurgence and Energy Inflation地缘政治重燃与能源通胀

Escalating US-Iran conflict pushed crude prices up, reviving rate hike bets after June CPI recorded a decline.美伊冲突升级推动油价上涨，在6月CPI环比下降后重新拉升加息预期。

July 2026 Rate Hike Probability2026年7月加息概率

Post-Oil Rally (July 2026)油价上涨后（2026年7月）31 %

  • US CPI recorded negative month-on-month growth in June 2026 for the first time in six years.美国2026年6月CPI录得六年来首次环比负增长。
  • Renewed Middle East hostilities drove crude oil prices higher in mid-July 2026.中东局势升级推动原油价格在2026年7月中旬走高。
Contradiction矛盾之处

Divergence Between Economists and Financial Markets经济学家与金融市场预测分歧

Wall Street economists predict zero probability of a rate hike, contrasting with swap markets pricing a 31% chance.华尔街经济学家预测加息概率为零，与掉期市场定价31%的加息概率形成鲜明对比。

July Rate Hike Expectation7月加息概率预期

31 % (Swap Market)31%（掉期市场）

July 20262026年7月

July 20262026年7月31 % (Swap Market)

Economist Survey经济学家调查0 % (Swap Market)

  • Zero out of 76 surveyed economists predict a rate change at the July 28–29 meeting.受访的76名经济学家无一预计美联储会在7月28-29日的会议上变动利率。
  • Rate swap contracts fully price in a 25 bps hike by late September 2026.利率掉期合约已完全定价2026年9月底前加息25个基点。

03Timeline时间线

  1. 2024-09-18 Fed cuts rates by 50 bps amid market uncertainty over 25 vs 50 bps.美联储降息50个基点，此前市场对降息幅度存在分歧。
  2. 2026-05-01 Kevin Warsh assumes office as Fed Chair and abolishes forward guidance.凯文·沃什就任美联储主席，并废除政策前瞻性指引。
  3. 2026-07-15 US June CPI shows first month-on-month decline in six years before Middle East conflict heats up oil prices.美国6月CPI录得六年来首次环比负增长，随后中东冲突推高油价。
  4. 2026-07-28 FOMC convenes for two-day rate-setting policy meeting in Washington.美联储公开市场委员会召开为期两天的议息会议。

Key takeaway核心结论

Without Fed forward guidance, external price shocks translate directly into market volatility, ending the era of predictable policy decisions.缺失前瞻指引下，外部价格冲击直接转化为市场波动，预示美联储确定性单边指引时代终结。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. FOMC policy statement and Chair Warsh press conference on July 29, 2026.2026年7月29日美联储政策声明及主席沃什新闻发布会。
  2. Oil price trajectory amid Middle East conflict escalation.美伊冲突升级背景下的原油价格走势。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • Exact FOMC voting split between hawkish and dovish members.美联储委员会内部鹰派与鸽派阵营的具体投票分歧。
  • Duration and severity of geopolitical supply shocks on oil prices.地缘政治供应冲击对原油价格影响的持续时间与程度。

06Sources信息来源

  1. Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise Above 30%! One-Week Countdown to Resolution Leaves Market Bewildered加息概率升至逾三成！美联储决议倒计时一周 市场彻底懵了？ 中国能源网 · 2026-07-23

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