China’s Potential Urea Return Adds Uncertainty to Fertilizer Markets — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

China’s Potential Urea Return Adds Uncertainty to Fertilizer Markets中国可能重返尿素市场，加剧化肥市场不确定性

China may ease fertilizer export restrictions, particularly for urea, after years of tighter controls. A larger return of Chinese urea could increase global nitrogen supply, but phosphate markets face separate pressure from high sulfur costs linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The outlook is leaving U.S. farmers divided over when to price fertilizer for the 2027 crop.在多年收紧出口限制后，中国可能放松化肥出口管控，尤其是尿素出口。中国大规模回归尿素市场可能增加全球氮肥供应，但磷肥市场正受到硫成本上升的额外压力，相关上涨与霍尔木兹海峡附近的供应中断有关。这一前景使美国农民在何时为2027年作物采购化肥的问题上意见分化。

AgWeb 5 Oct 2026 2026年10月5日

3030

Reported increase in Chinese urea production据报道的中国尿素产量增幅

4444

Economists recommending partial 2027 fertilizer purchases建议分批采购2027年化肥的经济学家比例

01The Story新闻事实

China may ease fertilizer export restrictions, particularly for urea, after years of tighter controls. A larger return of Chinese urea could increase global nitrogen supply, but phosphate markets face separate pressure from high sulfur costs linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The outlook is leaving U.S. farmers divided over when to price fertilizer for the 2027 crop.在多年收紧出口限制后，中国可能放松化肥出口管控，尤其是尿素出口。中国大规模回归尿素市场可能增加全球氮肥供应，但磷肥市场正受到硫成本上升的额外压力，相关上涨与霍尔木兹海峡附近的供应中断有关。这一前景使美国农民在何时为2027年作物采购化肥的问题上意见分化。

  • China produces nearly half of the world’s phosphate and about one-third of its nitrogen.中国生产全球近一半的磷肥和约三分之一的氮肥。
  • Market participants had not received clear guidance by September on whether China would resume significant DAP and MAP exports.截至9月，市场参与者仍未获得明确信息，不确定中国是否会恢复大规模磷酸二铵和磷酸一铵出口。
  • Reports cited in the article indicate that Chinese urea production has increased by roughly 30%.文章援引的报告显示，中国尿素产量增加了约30%。
  • Sulfur prices reached $1,300 per metric ton at one point, affecting the economics of MAP and DAP production.硫价一度达到每吨1300美元，影响了磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵生产的经济性。
  • The article says global phosphate production could decline by as much as 30 million metric tons next year if sulfuric acid costs and availability remain difficult.文章称，如果硫酸成本和供应状况持续恶化，全球磷肥产量明年可能减少最多3000万吨。

China’s possible return to fertilizer exports could ease nitrogen tightness while leaving phosphate supply exposed to separate geopolitical and cost pressures.中国可能恢复化肥出口，或可缓解氮肥供应紧张，但磷肥供应仍面临独立的地缘政治和成本压力。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Future signal前瞻信号

China’s uneven fertilizer re-entry中国不均衡地重返化肥市场

The potential change in China’s export policy appears more pronounced for urea than for phosphate fertilizers. This means China’s impact may differ substantially across nutrient markets.中国出口政策的潜在变化似乎在尿素领域比磷肥领域更明显。这意味着中国对不同养分市场的影响可能存在显著差异。

Reported increase in Chinese urea production据报道的中国尿素产量增幅

20262026年30 %

  • China appears to be easing its fertilizer export stance, particularly on urea.中国似乎正在放松化肥出口立场，尤其是对尿素出口的限制。
  • Traders remained uncertain about whether significant Chinese DAP and MAP exports would resume in 2026.交易商仍不确定中国是否会在2026年恢复大规模磷酸二铵和磷酸一铵出口。
Contradiction矛盾之处

Supply relief versus phosphate constraints供应缓解与磷肥约束并存

Additional Chinese urea could provide relief to tight nitrogen markets, but phosphate production is being constrained by sulfur costs rather than a lack of sulfur resources. The result is a fertilizer market moving in different directions by product.额外的中国尿素供应可能缓解氮肥市场紧张，但磷肥生产受到硫成本而非硫资源短缺的限制。因此，不同化肥品种的市场走向可能出现分化。

  • Sulfur is required to manufacture MAP and DAP alongside phosphate rock and ammonia.生产磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵，除磷矿石和氨外，还需要硫。
  • The article says some phosphate production has been idled because sulfur costs make production uneconomic.文章称，由于硫成本使生产缺乏经济性，部分磷肥产能已经停产。
Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Policy uncertainty reaches farm purchasing decisions政策不确定性传导至农户采购决策

Uncertainty over global supply and prices is leading farmers and agricultural economists to favor partial purchasing rather than a single timing strategy. Most surveyed economists did not expect fertilizer prices to decline by spring.全球供应和价格前景的不确定性，使农民和农业经济学家更倾向于分批采购，而不是采用单一的采购时点策略。大多数受访经济学家预计，到春季化肥价格不会下降。

Economists recommending partial 2027 fertilizer purchases建议分批采购2027年化肥的经济学家比例

September 20262026年9月44 %

Spring 20272027年春季39 %

Week ending October 2, 2026截至2026年10月2日的一周945 US dollars per ton

  • Twenty-eight percent recommended locking in most or all fertilizer needs in the fall, while 11% favored waiting for potential spring pricing.28%的受访者建议秋季锁定大部分或全部化肥需求，11%则建议等待春季可能出现的价格。
  • Thirty-three percent expected wholesale fertilizer prices to remain approximately where they were.33%的受访者预计化肥批发价格将大致维持当前水平。

Key takeaway核心结论

China could ease global nitrogen pressure through greater urea exports, but fertilizer markets remain segmented by product and vulnerable to geopolitical supply and production-cost shocks.中国增加尿素出口可能缓解全球氮肥压力，但化肥市场仍按品种分化，并容易受到地缘政治供应冲击和生产成本冲击的影响。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether China resumes significant DAP and MAP exports in 2026.中国是否会在2026年恢复大规模磷酸二铵和磷酸一铵出口。
  2. Whether higher Chinese urea production translates into a significant return to global markets.中国尿素产量增加是否会转化为其大规模重返全球市场。
  3. Whether conditions around the Strait of Hormuz ease enough to reduce sulfur supply and cost pressure.霍尔木兹海峡周边局势是否缓和到足以降低硫供应和成本压力。
  4. How fertilizer prices affect farmers’ 2027 purchasing and application decisions.化肥价格将如何影响农民对2027年化肥采购和施用的决定。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The article does not establish whether China will fully resume fertilizer exports or how long any policy easing would last.文章未确定中国是否会全面恢复化肥出口，也未说明任何政策放松将持续多久。
  • The estimated potential decline in global phosphate production depends on the continued cost and availability of sulfuric acid.全球磷肥产量可能下降的估计，取决于硫酸成本和供应状况是否持续恶化。
  • The timing and scale of new U.S. fertilizer capacity remain uncertain because facilities require years to build and reach full production.美国新增化肥产能的时间和规模仍不确定，因为新设施需要数年建设并达到满负荷生产。

06Sources信息来源

  1. Farmers Face A Fertilizer Market Full of Wild Cards - AgWebFarmers Face A Fertilizer Market Full of Wild Cards - AgWeb AgWeb · 2026-10-05

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析

X Facebook LinkedIn WhatsApp