Southeast Asia gas build-out faces rising solar cost competition东南亚天然气扩张面临太阳能成本竞争加剧

01The Story新闻事实

Nearly 49 GW of new gas capacity is planned across Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam. Zero Carbon Analytics estimates that solar could generate the same annual output at $45.4 billion less, while corporate renewable procurement and policy changes are expanding direct access to clean electricity.印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、菲律宾和越南计划新增近490亿瓦天然气发电容量。Zero Carbon Analytics估计，太阳能以低450亿美元的成本即可产生相同的年发电量；与此同时，企业采购可再生电力以及相关政策变化，正在扩大企业直接获得清洁电力的渠道。

• Nearly 49 GW of new gas capacity is planned across five Southeast Asian countries.东南亚五国计划新增近49吉瓦天然气发电容量。
• The planned gas capacity could generate about 263 TWh of electricity annually.这些计划中的天然气容量每年可发电约263太瓦时。
• Generating the same output from solar would cost an estimated $45.4 billion less.以太阳能产生相同电量，预计可少花费454亿美元。
• Across the five countries, solar electricity was 50% cheaper than gas on average in 2025, with the gap projected to reach 84% by 2030.2025年，五国太阳能发电平均比天然气发电便宜50%；到2030年，这一差距预计扩大至84%。
• Microsoft, Google and Samsung Electronics have signed agreements to procure renewable or solar electricity in Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.Microsoft、Google和Samsung Electronics已在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和越南签署采购可再生电力或太阳能电力的协议。

The region’s planned gas investments are being weighed against falling solar costs and growing corporate demand for directly procured renewable electricity.随着太阳能成本下降、企业直接采购可再生电力的需求增长，东南亚正重新权衡计划中的天然气投资。

023 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2024 Malaysia allowed corporate green consumers to buy renewable energy directly from producers.马来西亚允许企业绿色消费者直接向发电商购买可再生能源。
2. 2025 Solar electricity was 50% cheaper than gas on average across the five countries.五国太阳能发电平均比天然气发电便宜50%。
3. 2026 Vietnam allowed data centres and electric-vehicle charging stations to buy green power directly.越南允许数据中心和电动汽车充电站直接购买绿色电力。
4. 2030 The average solar-versus-gas cost gap is projected to reach 84%, while onshore wind is expected to become cheaper than gas in three countries.太阳能与天然气的平均成本差距预计扩大至84%；陆上风电预计将在三个国家比天然气更便宜。

Key takeaway核心结论

Southeast Asia’s planned gas expansion faces increasing economic competition from solar, wind and corporate renewable procurement.东南亚计划中的天然气扩张正面临来自太阳能、风电和企业可再生电力采购日益增强的经济竞争。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Whether the nearly 49 GW of planned gas capacity proceeds as solar costs continue to fall.近49吉瓦计划中的天然气容量是否会在太阳能成本持续下降的情况下推进。
2. Whether the projected solar-versus-gas cost gap reaches 84% by 2030.到2030年，太阳能与天然气的成本差距是否达到预计的84%。
3. Expansion of direct renewable-electricity procurement by data centres and other corporate consumers.数据中心及其他企业用户直接采购可再生电力的规模是否扩大。
4. Whether onshore wind becomes cheaper than gas power in Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines by 2030.到2030年，陆上风电是否会在印度尼西亚、越南和菲律宾比天然气发电更便宜。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• The source identifies nearly 49 GW as planned capacity, but does not state how much will ultimately be built or when.来源称近49吉瓦为计划容量，但未说明最终有多少会建成，也未说明具体建设时间。
• The 2030 cost comparisons are projections based on cited BloombergNEF and International Energy Agency data.2030年的成本比较是基于所引用的BloombergNEF和国际能源署数据作出的预测。
• The source does not quantify how corporate renewable procurement will affect the planned gas infrastructure pipeline.来源未量化企业采购可再生电力将如何影响计划中的天然气基础设施项目。

06Sources信息来源

1. Gas build‑out in Southeast Asia risks locking in less competitive infra | Asian PowerGas build‑out in Southeast Asia risks locking in less competitive infra | Asian Power Asian Power · 2026-10-04

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析