China expands virtual power plants for a smarter, more flexible grid — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

China expands virtual power plants for a smarter, more flexible grid中国加快发展虚拟电厂，提升电网智能化与灵活性

China is shifting from a power system centered on adjusting generation toward one that coordinates generation, grids, users and storage. Its 2026-30 plan targets more than 50 gigawatts of VPP regulation capacity by 2030, as rapid renewable growth, electric vehicles and AI data centers increase the need for flexible demand-side resources.中国正从以调节发电侧为中心的电力系统，转向协调发电、电网、用户负荷和储能的互动体系。中国2026至2030年规划提出，到2030年虚拟电厂最大调节能力超过5000万千瓦；与此同时，可再生能源、 电动汽车和人工智能数据中心的快速发展，进一步推高了对需求侧灵活资源的需求。

China Daily 4 Oct 2026 2026年10月4日

1.9B19.5亿

Wind and solar installed capacity风电和太阳能发电装机容量

5050

VPP regulation-capacity target虚拟电厂调节能力目标

300M3亿

Estimated flexible-resource potential预计柔性资源调节潜力

01The Story新闻事实

China is shifting from a power system centered on adjusting generation toward one that coordinates generation, grids, users and storage. Its 2026-30 plan targets more than 50 gigawatts of VPP regulation capacity by 2030, as rapid renewable growth, electric vehicles and AI data centers increase the need for flexible demand-side resources.中国正从以调节发电侧为中心的电力系统，转向协调发电、电网、用户负荷和储能的互动体系。中国2026至2030年规划提出，到2030年虚拟电厂最大调节能力超过5000万千瓦；与此同时，可再生能源、 电动汽车和人工智能数据中心的快速发展，进一步推高了对需求侧灵活资源的需求。

  • China's 2026-30 plan targets more than 50 gigawatts of maximum regulation capacity for virtual power plants by 2030.中国2026至2030年规划提出，到2030年虚拟电厂最大调节能力超过5000万千瓦。
  • By the end of June, China's installed wind and solar capacity had reached 1.95 billion kW, about 48.3 percent of total power generation capacity.截至6月底，中国风电和太阳能发电累计装机容量达到19.5亿千瓦，约占全国发电总装机容量的48.3%。
  • A VPP uses IoT, big data and AI to aggregate distributed assets such as rooftop solar, batteries and EV charging networks.虚拟电厂利用物联网、大数据和人工智能，聚合屋顶光伏、电池储能和电动汽车充电网络等分布式资源。
  • China had built 470 VPP projects by the end of 2025, with a measured maximum regulation capacity of 16.85 million kW.截至2025年底，中国已建成470个虚拟电厂项目，实测最大调节能力为1685万千瓦。
  • The combined regulation potential of commercial and industrial flexible loads, EVs and distributed storage is estimated to exceed 300 million kW.商业和工业柔性负荷、电动汽车及分布式储能的综合调节潜力预计超过3亿千瓦。

VPPs are becoming a demand-side tool for absorbing more variable renewable power while responding to rising electricity peaks.虚拟电厂正成为中国扩大可再生能源消纳、同时应对用电高峰增长的重要需求侧工具。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Contradiction矛盾之处

Renewable scale creates a flexibility challenge可再生能源规模扩大带来灵活性挑战

Wind and solar now represent roughly half of China's installed generation capacity, but their weather dependence can produce sharp mismatches between supply and demand. The article cites 30 percent midday curtailment at a Northwest new-energy base and a 40 percent evening power deficit after sunset.风电和太阳能发电已约占中国发电装机容量的一半，但其受天气影响的特性可能造成供需明显错配。文章称，中国西北某新能源基地中午时段弃电率经常达到30%，而日落后的晚间负荷高峰则面临40%的电力缺口。

Wind and solar installed capacity风电和太阳能发电装机容量

End of June截至6月底1.9B kW

End of June截至6月底48.3 %

Not specified未说明30 %

Not specified未说明40 %

  • The article says weather-dependent renewable generation can fluctuate significantly and create volatility in daily electricity supply and demand.文章称，受天气影响的可再生能源发电量可能大幅波动，造成日常电力供需的不稳定。
Future signal前瞻信号

Policy sets a larger role for VPPs政策为虚拟电厂设定更大角色

The 2026-30 new power system plan places VPPs within China's demand-side grid strategy. Its target is substantially above the measured capacity reported for projects operating by the end of 2025.2026至2030年新型电力系统建设规划将虚拟电厂纳入中国需求侧电网战略。规划目标明显高于截至2025年底已建成项目的实测调节能力。

VPP regulation-capacity target虚拟电厂调节能力目标

20302030年50 GW

By 2030到2030年2.8B kW

  • The plan calls for high-level absorption of more than 2.8 billion kW of renewable energy by the end of the decade.该规划提出，到本十年末实现超过28亿千瓦可再生能源的高水平消纳。
  • China had 470 VPP projects with 16.85 million kW of measured maximum regulation capacity at the end of 2025.截至2025年底，中国有470个虚拟电厂项目，实测最大调节能力为1685万千瓦。
Stakeholder impact利益相关方

User-side resources become a grid asset用户侧资源成为电网资产

Commercial and industrial loads, EVs and distributed storage together offer a large pool of potential flexibility, but their small scale, geographic dispersion and different response characteristics make centralized dispatch difficult. VPPs address this coordination problem through digital aggregation.商业和工业负荷、电动汽车及分布式储能共同构成规模可观的潜在灵活资源，但这些资源规模小、分布散且响应特性不同，传统集中式调度难以有效管理。虚拟电厂通过数字化聚合来应对这一协调难题。

Estimated flexible-resource potential预计柔性资源调节潜力

300M kW3亿千瓦

Not specified未说明

  • The estimated potential is equivalent to the capacity of roughly 150 large-scale pumped-storage hydropower stations.这一潜力相当于约150座大型抽水蓄能电站的容量。
  • VPPs can remotely discharge stored power or reduce consumption during peak demand or fluctuating renewable output.在需求高峰或可再生能源出力波动时，虚拟电厂可以远程释放储能电力或降低用电量。
Cause因果关系

New demand adds pressure during peaks新增用电需求加大峰时压力

The spread of EVs and energy-intensive AI data centers is adding electricity demand, often during evening peaks. This widens the difference between peak and off-peak loads and increases the value of demand-side response.电动汽车的普及和高耗能人工智能数据中心的发展正在增加用电需求，而且往往集中于晚间高峰时段。这扩大了峰谷负荷差，也提高了需求侧响应的价值。

  • The article identifies EVs and AI data centers as sources of new electricity demand that put pressure on the grid.文章指出，电动汽车和人工智能数据中心带来的新增用电需求正在给电网施加压力。
  • The resulting peak-to-valley load difference is described as widening, particularly around evening peak hours.文章称，由此形成的峰谷负荷差正在扩大，尤其是在晚间用电高峰时段。

03Timeline时间线

  1. 2025 China had built 470 VPP projects by the end of the year, with measured maximum regulation capacity of 16.85 million kW.截至当年年底，中国已建成470个虚拟电厂项目，实测最大调节能力为1685万千瓦。
  2. 2026 China's 2026-30 plan for new power system construction set a VPP regulation-capacity target of more than 50 GW by 2030.中国发布2026至2030年新型电力系统建设规划，提出到2030年虚拟电厂调节能力超过50吉瓦。
  3. 2030 The plan calls for more than 2.8 billion kW of high-level renewable-energy absorption by the end of the decade.该规划提出，到本十年末实现超过28亿千瓦可再生能源的高水平消纳。

Key takeaway核心结论

China is using virtual power plants to turn dispersed user-side resources into a flexible complement to conventional grid infrastructure.中国正利用虚拟电厂将分散的用户侧资源转化为传统电网基础设施的灵活补充。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether VPP regulation capacity can scale from 16.85 million kW measured at the end of 2025 toward the 50 GW target for 2030.截至2025年底实测的1685万千瓦虚拟电厂调节能力，能否逐步接近2030年5000万千瓦以上的目标。
  2. How market mechanisms will unlock flexibility from commercial and industrial loads, EVs and distributed storage.市场机制将如何释放商业和工业负荷、电动汽车及分布式储能的灵活性。
  3. Whether digital aggregation can coordinate geographically dispersed assets with different response characteristics at grid scale.数字化聚合能否在电网规模上协调地理位置分散、响应特性各异的资源。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The article does not specify how the more-than-50 GW VPP target will be allocated across regions, technologies or projects.文章未说明超过5000万千瓦的虚拟电厂目标将如何在不同地区、技术或项目之间分配。
  • The cited 300 million kW flexible-resource estimate is an initial estimate, and the article does not state how much of it is currently dispatchable.文中所引3亿千瓦柔性资源潜力属于初步估算，文章未说明其中有多少目前已具备可调度能力。
  • The article describes the challenges of renewable intermittency and rising demand but does not quantify the future contribution of VPPs to grid reliability.文章描述了可再生能源间歇性和用电需求增长带来的挑战，但未量化虚拟电厂未来对电网可靠性的具体贡献。

06Sources信息来源

  1. VPP network powers up as nation eyes smarter gridVPP network powers up as nation eyes smarter grid China Daily · 2026-10-04

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