China targets 50 GW of virtual power plant capacity by 2030

01The Story新闻事实

China is expanding virtual power plants (VPPs) to manage the volatility of wind and solar power and rising electricity demand from electric vehicles and AI data centers. The national plan targets more than 50 gigawatts of VPP regulation capacity by 2030, while 470 projects had been built by the end of 2025 with measured capacity of 16.85 million kilowatts.中国正扩大虚拟电厂建设，以应对风电和太阳能发电的波动，以及电动汽车和人工智能数据中心带来的电力需求增长。国家计划提出到2030年将虚拟电厂调节能力提升至5000万千瓦以上；截至2025年底，中国已建成470个虚拟电厂项目，实测最大调节能力为1685万千瓦。

The 2026-30 plan targets more than 50 gigawatts of maximum regulation capacity for virtual power plants by 2030.《新型电力系统建设“十五五”行动方案》提出，到2030年虚拟电厂最大调节能力超过5000万千瓦。
Wind and solar power reached 1.95 billion kilowatts of cumulative installed capacity by the end of June, about 48.3 percent of China's total power generation capacity.截至6月底，中国风电和太阳能发电累计装机容量达到19.5亿千瓦，约占全国发电总装机容量的48.3%。
China had built 470 VPP projects by the end of 2025, with a measured maximum regulation capacity of 16.85 million kilowatts.截至2025年底，中国已建成470个虚拟电厂项目，实测最大调节能力为1685万千瓦。
Commercial and industrial flexible loads, electric vehicles and distributed storage have an estimated combined regulation potential exceeding 300 million kilowatts.初步估算，工商业柔性负荷、电动汽车和分布式储能的综合调节潜力超过3亿千瓦。
Shanghai's summer 2025 GW-scale VPP dispatch reduced the city's peak load by 1.16 million kilowatts.2025年夏季，上海完成全国首次吉瓦级虚拟电厂实际测量调度，使城市尖峰负荷削减了116万千瓦。

China is shifting grid flexibility from relying mainly on power plants and network infrastructure toward digitally coordinating distributed user-side resources.中国正将电网灵活性来源从主要依赖发电厂和电网基础设施，转向通过数字化协调分散的用户侧资源。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Cause因果关系

Renewable growth creates a flexibility gap可再生能源增长扩大灵活性缺口

Wind and solar now represent roughly 48.3 percent of total installed generation capacity, increasing the need to manage weather-dependent output. One northwest energy base reportedly curtails 30 percent of output around noon and faces a 40 percent power deficit during the evening peak.风电和太阳能已约占全国发电总装机容量的48.3%，对天气依赖的发电特性加大了系统调节需求。据报道，中国西北一处大型新能源基地中午时段经常因需求或输电能力不足而弃掉30%的出力，晚间用电高峰则面临40%的电力缺口。

Wind and solar share of total capacity风电和太阳能占总装机容量比例

By the end of June截至6月底48.3 %

Not specified文中未说明30 %

Not specified文中未说明40 %

Wind and solar capacity reached 1.95 billion kilowatts by the end of June.截至6月底，风电和太阳能发电装机容量达到19.5亿千瓦。
Extreme weather can cause significant volatility in daily electricity supply and demand.极端天气可能导致日常电力供需出现显著波动。

Future signal前瞻信号

VPP deployment is expanding but remains below the 2030 target虚拟电厂建设正在扩张，但仍低于2030年目标

China had 16.85 million kilowatts of measured VPP regulation capacity at the end of 2025, compared with the national target of more than 50 gigawatts by 2030. The gap indicates that project expansion and the development of market mechanisms remain central to implementation.截至2025年底，中国虚拟电厂实测调节能力为1685万千瓦，而国家目标是到2030年超过5000万千瓦。这一差距表明，项目扩张和市场机制建设仍是落实目标的关键。

Measured VPP regulation capacity虚拟电厂实测调节能力

End of 20252025年底16.85 million kW

End of 20252025年底470 projects

China had built 470 VPP projects by the end of 2025.截至2025年底，中国已建成470个虚拟电厂项目。
The 2026-30 plan calls for more than 50 gigawatts of maximum VPP regulation capacity by 2030.2026—2030年规划提出，到2030年虚拟电厂最大调节能力超过5000万千瓦。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Distributed resources become a dispatchable asset分布式资源转化为可调度资产

VPPs use IoT, big data and AI to combine small, scattered resources such as rooftop solar, batteries and EV charging networks. Their estimated flexible capacity exceeds 300 million kilowatts, potentially providing a large source of regulation without building additional conventional power plants.虚拟电厂利用物联网、大数据和人工智能，将屋顶光伏、电池储能和电动汽车充电网络等规模较小且分散的资源整合起来。相关资源的估计调节潜力超过3亿千瓦，可形成不依赖新增传统电厂的大规模调节来源。

Estimated flexible-resource regulation potential柔性资源估计调节潜力

300 million kW300百万千瓦

Not specified文中未说明

Equivalent pumped-storage stations折合大型抽水蓄能电站数量

150 stations150座

Not specified文中未说明

The resources include commercial and industrial flexible loads, EVs and distributed storage.这些资源包括工商业柔性负荷、电动汽车和分布式储能。
Traditional centralized dispatching cannot effectively manage resources that are individually small, geographically scattered and operationally diverse.由于这些资源单体规模小、地域分散且响应特性差异较大，传统集中式调度难以有效管理。

Comparison对比

China is benchmarking against mature foreign projects中国正以成熟海外项目为参照

Germany manages about 18 million kilowatts of similar resources and achieves a 65 percent utilization rate in mature projects. China is seeking to improve utilization through market reforms as it expands its VPP cluster.德国管理着约1800万千瓦的类似资源，成熟项目的利用率达到65%。中国在扩大虚拟电厂集群的同时，正通过市场改革提高资源利用率。

China measured VPP regulation capacity中国虚拟电厂实测调节能力

End of 20252025年底16.85 million kW

Not specified文中未说明65 %

Germany manages about 18 million kilowatts of similar resources.德国管理着约1800万千瓦的类似资源。
China is pursuing market reforms to match the utilization performance of mature projects.中国正通过市场改革，努力达到成熟项目的资源利用水平。

03Timeline时间线

2025 Shanghai conducted the country's first GW-scale VPP actual-measurement dispatch during the summer, cutting peak load by 1.16 million kilowatts.2025年夏季，上海完成全国首次吉瓦级虚拟电厂实际测量调度，使尖峰负荷削减116万千瓦。
2025 China had built 470 VPP projects with measured maximum regulation capacity of 16.85 million kilowatts by the end of the year.截至2025年底，中国已建成470个虚拟电厂项目，实测最大调节能力为1685万千瓦。
2026-10-05 China Daily reported on the expansion of VPPs as part of the country's smarter-grid transition.《中国日报》报道了虚拟电厂扩张及其在中国智能电网转型中的作用。

Key takeaway核心结论

Virtual power plants are becoming a central tool for China to integrate growing renewable capacity and manage increasingly complex electricity demand.虚拟电厂正成为中国消纳不断增长的可再生能源装机、应对日益复杂电力需求的核心工具。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether China can raise VPP regulation capacity from 16.85 million kilowatts at the end of 2025 to more than 50 gigawatts by 2030.中国能否将虚拟电厂调节能力从2025年底的1685万千瓦提升至2030年的5000万千瓦以上。
How market reforms improve the utilization rate of VPP resources.市场改革将如何提高虚拟电厂资源的利用率。
Whether EVs, AI data centers and other growing loads can be integrated into demand-side response during peak periods.电动汽车、人工智能数据中心等不断增长的负荷能否在用电高峰期纳入需求侧响应。
Whether VPP development supports the planned high-level absorption of more than 2.8 billion kilowatts of renewable energy by 2030.虚拟电厂发展能否支持到2030年实现对超过28亿千瓦可再生能源的高水平消纳。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The source does not specify the year for the reported end-of-June wind and solar capacity figure.消息未明确说明文中“截至6月底”所对应的年份。
The ability of VPPs to scale depends on coordinating geographically dispersed resources with different response characteristics.虚拟电厂能否扩大规模，取决于如何协调地域分散、响应特性各异的资源。
The source does not provide a national VPP utilization rate or a detailed timetable for reaching the 2030 target.消息未提供全国虚拟电厂利用率，也未给出实现2030年目标的详细时间表。

06Sources信息来源

VPP network powers up as nation eyes smarter grid - Chinadaily.com.cnVPP network powers up as nation eyes smarter grid - Chinadaily.com.cn China Daily · 2026-10-05

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