Indonesia Seeks Fairer Terms Before Supporting ASEAN Power Grid — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

Indonesia Seeks Fairer Terms Before Supporting ASEAN Power Grid印度尼西亚寻求更公平条款后再支持东盟电网

Indonesia is withholding support for the ASEAN power grid initiative until cross-border electricity deals provide what its energy minister called “win-win” prices and fairly shared benefits. The country is also pursuing a 100GW solar expansion that could require US$70bn–73bn in investment, while six projects have received conditional licences to export up to 3GW of clean power to Singapore.印度尼西亚暂不支持东盟电网倡议，要求跨境电力交易提供能源部长所称的“互利”价格并公平分配收益。与此同时，该国正推进100吉瓦太阳能扩张计划，预计需要700亿至730亿美元投资；目前已有六个项目获得有条件许可，最多可向新加坡出口3吉瓦清洁电力。

Green Central Banking 5 Oct 2026 2026年10月5日

100100

Planned solar additions计划新增太阳能容量

7070

Estimated investment requirement, lower estimate预计投资需求下限

01The Story新闻事实

Indonesia is withholding support for the ASEAN power grid initiative until cross-border electricity deals provide what its energy minister called “win-win” prices and fairly shared benefits. The country is also pursuing a 100GW solar expansion that could require US$70bn–73bn in investment, while six projects have received conditional licences to export up to 3GW of clean power to Singapore.印度尼西亚暂不支持东盟电网倡议，要求跨境电力交易提供能源部长所称的“互利”价格并公平分配收益。与此同时，该国正推进100吉瓦太阳能扩张计划，预计需要700亿至730亿美元投资；目前已有六个项目获得有条件许可，最多可向新加坡出口3吉瓦清洁电力。

  • Indonesia wants electricity export contracts to distribute benefits fairly and says proposed prices are not yet “win-win”.印度尼西亚要求电力出口合同公平分配收益，并表示拟议价格尚未达到“互利”水平。
  • Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore have already integrated their power grids.老挝、泰国、马来西亚和新加坡已经实现电网互联。
  • Singaporean authorities have conditionally licensed six projects to import 3GW of clean power from Indonesia.新加坡有关部门已对六个从印度尼西亚进口3吉瓦清洁电力的项目发放有条件许可。
  • Indonesia plans to add 100GW of solar generation, up from a current installed solar capacity of 1.5GW.印度尼西亚计划新增100吉瓦太阳能发电能力，目前太阳能装机容量为1.5吉瓦。
  • The planned solar additions are estimated to require US$70bn–73bn in new investment.预计太阳能扩张计划需要新增700亿至730亿美元投资。
  • PLN plans to buy solar power at US$0.05–0.06 per kWh, compared with US$0.03–0.04 per kWh for coal-fired power.印尼国家电力公司PLN计划以每千瓦时0.05至0.06美元购买太阳能电力，而煤电通常为每千瓦时0.03至0.04美元。

Indonesia’s position links ASEAN grid integration to whether cross-border clean-power trade can deliver sufficient returns to the electricity-exporting country.印度尼西亚的立场表明，东盟电网一体化取决于跨境清洁电力交易能否为电力出口国带来足够回报。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Grid integration and bargaining power电网互联与议价能力

Four ASEAN countries already have integrated grids, but Indonesia is withholding support while it seeks export terms that it considers fairer. Its position could affect the expansion of regional electricity trading, particularly with Singapore.东盟已有四国实现电网互联，但印度尼西亚在寻求其认为更公平的出口条款期间暂不支持该倡议。其立场可能影响区域电力交易，尤其是与新加坡之间的交易扩展。

  • Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore have already integrated their grids.老挝、泰国、马来西亚和新加坡已经实现电网互联。
  • Indonesia says export contracts must not disadvantage the supplying country.印度尼西亚表示，出口合同不能损害供应国利益。
Future signal前瞻信号

Solar expansion scale太阳能扩张规模

Indonesia plans a 100GW solar buildout within the next three years, alongside an existing plan to add 69.5GW of total generation capacity by 2034. The programme is intended to attract private businesses and independent power producers.印度尼西亚计划在未来三年内建设100吉瓦太阳能发电能力，同时现有计划要求到2034年新增69.5吉瓦发电能力。该计划拟吸引私营企业和独立电力生产商参与。

Planned solar additions计划新增太阳能容量

100 GW100吉瓦

within the next three years未来三年内

Current installed solar capacity当前太阳能装机容量

1.5 GW1.5吉瓦

Planned total new generation capacity计划新增发电能力

69.5 GW69.5吉瓦

by 2034到2034年

  • About 5.5GW of new solar capacity has been launched in the first phase.第一阶段已启动约5.5吉瓦新增太阳能容量。
  • Indonesia plans to tender an additional 25GW–30GW of solar capacity.印度尼西亚计划进一步招标25至30吉瓦太阳能容量。
Consequence影响推演

Investment and project economics投资与项目经济性

The solar programme is expected to require US$70bn–73bn in investment, while developers point to potential foreign investment, jobs and tax revenue. Higher solar purchase prices may improve incentives for investment but also affect the economics of exported power.太阳能计划预计需要700亿至730亿美元投资，开发商则强调其潜在外资、就业和税收收益。更高的太阳能收购价格可能增强投资动力，但也会影响出口电力的经济性。

Estimated investment requirement, lower estimate预计投资需求下限

Estimated investment requirement, lower estimate预计投资需求下限70 US$bn

Estimated investment requirement, upper estimate预计投资需求上限73 US$bn

Solar purchase price太阳能收购价格0.05 US$/kWh

  • Vanda RE estimates its project could bring US$3.5bn in prospective investment and US$1.76bn in government tax revenue.Vanda RE估计，其项目可能带来35亿美元潜在投资和17.6亿美元政府税收。
  • Vanda RE estimates 60,000 jobs over the construction and operations phase.Vanda RE估计，项目建设和运营阶段将带来6万个就业岗位。
Future signal前瞻信号

Indonesia–Singapore export pipeline印度尼西亚—新加坡电力出口管线

Indonesia has significant low-carbon generation potential, but projects supplying Singapore still require Indonesian regulatory approval. One developer hopes its solar and battery project can begin supplying Singapore by 2029.印度尼西亚拥有较大的低碳发电潜力，但向新加坡供电的项目仍需获得印度尼西亚监管批准。一家开发商希望其太阳能和电池项目能在2029年开始向新加坡供电。

  • Six projects have conditional licences to bring up to 3GW of clean power into Singapore.六个项目已获得向新加坡输入最多3吉瓦清洁电力的有条件许可。
  • Vanda RE said it hopes to start supplying Singapore by 2029, subject to regulatory hurdles.Vanda RE表示，在克服监管障碍后，希望于2029年开始向新加坡供电。

03Timeline时间线

  1. 2026-10-05 Indonesia’s energy minister said the country would withhold support for the ASEAN power grid until export terms become more mutually beneficial.印度尼西亚能源部长表示，在出口条款变得更加互利之前，该国将暂不支持东盟电网倡议。

Key takeaway核心结论

Indonesia is using its potential role as a clean-power exporter to seek a larger share of the economic benefits from ASEAN grid integration.印度尼西亚正利用其潜在清洁电力出口国地位，争取在东盟电网一体化中获得更大经济收益。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether Indonesia approves the projects conditionally licensed to export clean power to Singapore.印度尼西亚是否批准已获有条件许可、计划向新加坡出口清洁电力的项目。
  2. Whether Indonesia and its ASEAN partners reach export prices and benefit-sharing terms acceptable to the supplying country.印度尼西亚与东盟伙伴能否就供应国可以接受的出口价格和收益分配条款达成一致。
  3. Progress on the first 5.5GW of solar capacity and the planned 25GW–30GW of additional tenders.首阶段5.5吉瓦太阳能容量以及计划新增25至30吉瓦招标项目的进展。
  4. Whether the solar and battery project can begin supplying Singapore by 2029.太阳能和电池项目能否在2029年开始向新加坡供电。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The proposed clean-power export projects still require regulatory approval from Indonesia.拟议清洁电力出口项目仍需获得印度尼西亚监管批准。
  • A higher Indonesian export tariff could narrow Singapore’s existing premium for the green attributes of Indonesian electricity.更高的印度尼西亚出口电价可能压缩新加坡目前为印度尼西亚电力绿色属性支付的溢价。
  • Indonesia’s persistent power oversupply has historically held back private investment in solar projects.印度尼西亚持续的电力过剩过去一直抑制私人资本投资太阳能项目。

06Sources信息来源

  1. Indonesia holds out on Asean power grid pact for ‘win-win’ terms - Green Central BankingIndonesia holds out on Asean power grid pact for ‘win-win’ terms - Green Central Banking Green Central Banking · 2026-10-05

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