China Issues 15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy中国印发《可再生能源发展“十五五”规划》

01The Story新闻事实

China set 2030 targets of 3.5 billion kW renewable capacity, 1.8 billion tce consumption, and 300 million kW added firm peak capacity.中国设定的2030年目标包括：可再生能源装机35亿千瓦、消费18亿吨标准煤，新增可靠顶峰能力3亿千瓦以上。

• China targets total renewable energy consumption of 1.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2030.中国计划到2030年可再生能源消费总量达到18���吨标准煤左右。
• Renewable power capacity will reach 3.5 billion kW by 2030, generating 6 trillion kWh annually.到2030年全国可再生能源发电总装机达35亿千���左右，年发电量达6万亿千瓦时左右。
• Wind and solar capacity will exceed 2.8 billion kW by 2030, comprising over 50% of total installed capacity.风电和太阳能发电总��机将达28亿千瓦以上，装机占比超过50%，发电量占比达30%。
• Non-electric renewable utilization will reach 150 million tons of standard coal by 2030, up 1.5 times from 2025.2030年可再生能源非电利用总规模较2025年增长1.5倍，折合约1.5亿吨标准煤。
• China mandates average firm capacity ratio for wind and solar with storage of 8% by 2030 and 300 million kW new peak capacity.规划设立可靠替代目标，到2030年风光平均置信出力达8%，“十五五”新增可靠顶峰能力3亿千瓦以上。

China's 15th Five-Year Plan shifts renewable policy from rapid capacity expansion to firm capacity guarantee and power grid integration.中国“十五五”规划将可再生能源政策重心从单纯规模扩张转向强调可靠顶峰替代与电网消纳保障。

024 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2020-12-12 China pledged to reach 1.2 billion kW wind and solar capacity by 2030.中国在气候雄心大会上提出到2030年风电光伏装机达12亿千瓦以上目标。
2. 2022-06-01 China published the 14th Five-Year Plan targeting 1.0 billion tce renewable consumption by 2025.国家发改委等印发《“十四五”可再生能源发展规划》，设定2025年消费总量10亿吨标准煤目标。
3. 2024-07-31 China reached 1.206 billion kW in wind and solar, meeting its initial 2030 target 6 years early.中国风电光伏总装机达12.06亿千瓦，提前6年实现原定2030年目标。
4. 2026-07-23 NDRC and NEA published the 15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development.国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《可再生能源发展“十五五”规划》。
5. 2030-12-31 Target deadline for 3.5 billion kW renewable capacity and 1.8 billion tce consumption.“十五五”规划目标节点：可再生能源装机达35亿千瓦、消费达18亿吨标准煤。

Key takeaway核心结论

China's 15th Five-Year Plan sets a 3.5 billion kW renewable target for 2030 while imposing strict firm peak capacity requirements.中国“十五五”可再生能源规划设定2030年35亿千瓦装机目标，同时首次硬化置信出力与晚高峰顶峰能力指标。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Mechanisms for energy storage capacity pricing and cost allocation.新型储能与配套电源容量电价机制的落地细节。
2. Construction progress of grid transmission channels for mega renewable bases.大型风电光伏基地配套特高压外送通道的建设进度。
3. Growth of non-electric renewable applications in industrial heat and transport.工业供热与交通领域可再生能源非电利用的推广进展。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• Grid integration bottlenecks during extreme weather peak demand periods.极端天气极端用电负荷期间电网消纳与跨省调度瓶颈。
• Economic return models for source-side energy storage installations.电源侧配建储能的商业化收益模式与成本分摊落实。

06Sources信息来源

1. NDRC and NEA Issue 15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《可再生能源发展“十五五”规划》 中国能源网 · 2026-07-23
2. 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development《“十四五”可再生能源发展规划》 国家能源局 · 2022-06-01
3. China Reaches 2030 Wind and Solar Target Six Years Early中国风电光伏装机提前六年突破12亿千瓦 国家能源局 · 2024-08-23
4. Analysis of 15th Five-Year Renewable Energy Targets and Investments《可再生能源发展“十五五”规划》目标与投资解读 中国能源网 · 2026-07-23

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析