TNB positioned to benefit from Malaysia’s energy transition — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

TNB positioned to benefit from Malaysia’s energy transitionTNB有望成为马来西亚能源转型的主要受益者

Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s Kenyir hybrid hydro floating solar project is on track to qualify for Malaysia’s accelerated Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme, reducing its system access charge for the first 10 years. TNB is also evaluating additional floating solar and pumped-storage opportunities as demand from data-centre operators increases and renewable-energy development expands.Tenaga Nasional Bhd的Kenyir混合水电漂浮式太阳能项目有望符合马来西亚加速企业可再生能源供应计划的资格,使其前10年的系统接入费下降。随着数据中心运营商对可再生电力的需求增加,TNB也在评估更多漂浮式太阳能及抽水蓄能机会。

The Star 5 Oct 2026 2026年10月5日

1414

Accelerated system access charge加速计划系统接入费

55

Additional reservoirs shortlisted已筛选的其他水库数量

120120

One-off additional cost absorption一次性额外成本承担

01The Story新闻事实

Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s Kenyir hybrid hydro floating solar project is on track to qualify for Malaysia’s accelerated Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme, reducing its system access charge for the first 10 years. TNB is also evaluating additional floating solar and pumped-storage opportunities as demand from data-centre operators increases and renewable-energy development expands.Tenaga Nasional Bhd的Kenyir混合水电漂浮式太阳能项目有望符合马来西亚加速企业可再生能源供应计划的资格,使其前10年的系统接入费下降。随着数据中心运营商对可再生电力的需求增加,TNB也在评估更多漂浮式太阳能及抽水蓄能机会。

  • The Kenyir hybrid hydro floating solar project is described as a 595MW project, with Phase 1 listed at 59MW/785MWp.Kenyir混合水电漂浮式太阳能项目被描述为一个595兆瓦项目,其第一期规模列为59兆瓦/785兆瓦峰值。
  • Phase 1 is targeted to achieve commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2028, meeting the accelerated scheme’s Dec 31, 2028 eligibility deadline.第一期计划于2028年第四季度投入商业运营,从而满足加速计划规定的2028年12月31日资格截止日期。
  • The project’s system access charge would fall to 14 sen per kWh for the first 10 years, from the previously agreed 20 sen per kWh.该项目前10年的系统接入费将从此前议定的每千瓦时20仙降至14仙。
  • TNB has shortlisted five other reservoirs with potential to add more than 1.9GW of hybrid hydro floating solar capacity.TNB已筛选五座其他水库,潜在新增混合水电漂浮式太阳能容量超过1.9吉瓦。
  • TNB is considering floating solar at the new Nenggiri hydro reservoir and exploring pumped-storage hydropower integrated with floating solar.TNB正在考虑在新的Nenggiri水库部署漂浮式太阳能,并探索与漂浮式太阳能结合的抽水蓄能水电项目。
  • TNB shares traded at RM13.06 at the time of writing, down 5.2% year-to-date.截至文章发布时,TNB股价为13.06令吉,年初至今下跌5.2%。

TNB’s regulated grid role and expanding renewable-energy pipeline could give it multiple avenues to participate in Malaysia’s energy transition.TNB受监管的电网业务地位及不断扩大的可再生能源项目储备,可能为其参与马来西亚能源转型提供多条路径。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Consequence影响推演

Lower access costs support project economics更低的接入费改善项目经济性

Eligibility for the accelerated scheme would reduce the Kenyir project’s system access charge during its first decade. The savings are expected to be passed on to the offtaker, subject to negotiations and the power purchase agreement.符合加速计划资格将降低Kenyir项目前十年的系统接入费。相关节省预计将根据谈判结果及购电协议条款传递给购电方。

Accelerated system access charge加速计划系统接入费

first 10 years前10年14 sen/kWh

  • The remaining 11 years of the 21-year power purchase agreement will use prevailing system access charge rates at that time.这份为期21年的购电协议剩余11年将采用届时适用的系统接入费率。
Future signal前瞻信号

Floating solar pipeline expands beyond Kenyir漂浮式太阳能项目储备扩展至Kenyir以外

TNB has identified additional reservoirs and is examining both new floating solar sites and combinations with pumped-storage hydropower. This indicates a broader development pipeline, although no timeline was disclosed for the pumped-storage option.TNB已确定更多水库,并研究新的漂浮式太阳能地点以及与抽水蓄能水电的结合方案。这表明其项目储备正在扩大,但抽水蓄能方案尚未公布时间表。

Additional reservoirs shortlisted已筛选的其他水库数量

5 reservoirs5座水库

Potential additional HHFS capacity潜在新增混合水电漂浮式太阳能容量

1.9 GW1.9吉瓦

  • TNB is considering floating solar at the Nenggiri reservoir and assessing pumped-storage hydropower as a longer-term storage option beyond battery energy storage systems.TNB正在考虑在Nenggiri水库部署漂浮式太阳能,并评估抽水蓄能水电作为电池储能系统之外的长期储能选项。
Cause因果关系

Data-centre demand may ease a development constraint数据中心需求可能缓解项目开发限制

TNB management said securing green offtakers has historically constrained renewable-energy development. Increasing renewable-electricity demand from data-centre operators could support the rollout of the company’s wider floating solar pipeline.TNB管理层表示,寻找绿色电力购电方过去一直是可再生能源项目开发的限制因素。数据中心运营商不断增加的可再生电力需求,可能支持公司更广泛的漂浮式太阳能项目推进。

  • A dealer said stronger data-centre demand could drive higher capital expenditure and new gas power plant awards.一名交易商表示,更强劲的数据中心需求可能推动资本支出增加,并带来新的燃气电厂项目授标。
Contradiction矛盾之处

Regulation and near-term costs remain market variables监管安排与短期成本仍是市场变量

Research houses cited the RP4 tariff framework and its dynamic automatic fuel adjustment mechanism as sources of stability. They also pointed to a one-off RM120mil-RM150mil consumer assistance cost and uncertainty over the post-December 2026 fuel-cost framework.研究机构认为,第四监管期电价框架及其动态自动燃料调整机制有助于提供稳定性。同时,市场仍关注一次性承担的1.2亿至1.5亿令吉消费者援助成本,以及2026年12月之后燃料成本框架的不确定性。

One-off additional cost absorption一次性额外成本承担

One-off additional cost absorption一次性额外成本承担120 RM million

  • MBSB Research said a redesigned fuel-cost framework should remain earnings neutral if full fuel-cost pass-through and recovery are preserved.MBSB Research表示,只要监管框架继续保障燃料成本的完整传导和回收,重新设计的燃料成本框架应不会影响TNB盈利。

03Timeline时间线

  1. 2026-10-05 The Star reported that TNB’s Kenyir project was on track for the accelerated renewable-energy scheme.《The Star》报道称,TNB的Kenyir项目有望符合加速可再生能源计划的资格。
  2. 2028-12-31 The accelerated scheme’s eligibility deadline for commercial operation.加速计划规定的商业运营资格截止日期。

Key takeaway核心结论

TNB’s immediate advantage is the potential reduction in Kenyir’s access charge, while its longer-term opportunity depends on expanding projects, corporate demand and regulatory clarity.TNB眼下的优势在于Kenyir项目接入费可能下降,而其长期机会取决于项目扩张、企业需求及监管安排的明确性。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether Kenyir Phase 1 achieves commercial operation by the Dec 31, 2028 deadline.Kenyir第一期能否在2028年12月31日截止日期前投入商业运营。
  2. The outcome of negotiations on passing system access charge savings to the offtaker.将系统接入费节省传递给购电方的谈判结果。
  3. Whether TNB advances the five additional reservoir opportunities and the Nenggiri pumped-storage concept.TNB是否推进另外五座水库的项目机会及Nenggiri抽水蓄能构想。
  4. How the government designs the post-December 2026 automatic fuel adjustment framework.政府将如何设计2026年12月之后的自动燃料调整框架。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The timeline for any pumped-storage hydropower development at Nenggiri has not been disclosed.Nenggiri抽水蓄能水电项目的开发时间表尚未公布。
  • Passing the system access charge savings to the offtaker remains subject to negotiations and the power purchase agreement.将系统接入费节省传递给购电方仍取决于谈判及购电协议条款。
  • The design of the post-December 2026 automatic fuel adjustment framework remains uncertain.2026年12月之后自动燃料调整框架的具体设计仍不确定。

06Sources信息来源

  1. TNB seen as key beneficiary of Malaysia’s energy transition push | The StarTNB seen as key beneficiary of Malaysia’s energy transition push | The Star The Star · 2026-10-05

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析

X Facebook LinkedIn WhatsApp