Zambia Expands Solar Power to Reduce Hydropower Risk — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

Zambia Expands Solar Power to Reduce Hydropower Risk赞比亚扩大太阳能发电以降低水电风险

Zambia is rapidly expanding solar generation as drought risk, mining growth and heavy reliance on hydropower reshape its electricity strategy. Solar capacity rose from 88 MW in 2021 to 841 MW in 2026, while the government targets approximately 1,000 MW by year-end. The 100-MW Maamba Solar project has begun commissioning and is supplying power to the national grid.随着干旱风险上升、采矿业增长以及对水电的高度依赖，赞比亚正快速扩大太阳能发电规模，调整其电力战略。太阳能装机容量已从2021年的88兆瓦增至2026年的841兆瓦，政府目标是在年底前达到约1,000兆瓦。100兆瓦的Maamba Solar项目已开始调试，并向国家电网供电。

Industrial Info Resources 5 Oct 2026 2026年10月5日

841841

Solar capacity太阳能装机容量

3939

Lake Kariba usable storage卡里巴湖可用发电储量

150150

Leopards Hill battery powerLeopards Hill电池项目功率

01The Story新闻事实

Zambia is rapidly expanding solar generation as drought risk, mining growth and heavy reliance on hydropower reshape its electricity strategy. Solar capacity rose from 88 MW in 2021 to 841 MW in 2026, while the government targets approximately 1,000 MW by year-end. The 100-MW Maamba Solar project has begun commissioning and is supplying power to the national grid.随着干旱风险上升、采矿业增长以及对水电的高度依赖，赞比亚正快速扩大太阳能发电规模，调整其电力战略。太阳能装机容量已从2021年的88兆瓦增至2026年的841兆瓦，政府目标是在年底前达到约1,000兆瓦。100兆瓦的Maamba Solar项目已开始调试，并向国家电网供电。

  • Zambia's total generating capacity increased from 3,100 MW in 2021 to 4,576 MW in 2026.赞比亚总发电装机容量从2021年的3,100兆瓦增至2026年的4,576兆瓦。
  • Solar capacity rose from 88 MW in 2021 to 841 MW in 2026, accounting for roughly 51% of the increase in national generating capacity.太阳能装机容量从2021年的88兆瓦增至2026年的841兆瓦，约占全国发电装机容量增量的51%。
  • The 100-MW Maamba Solar project supplied electricity to the national grid for the first time on September 24 and entered commissioning.100兆瓦的Maamba Solar项目于9月24日首次向国家电网供电，并进入调试阶段。
  • Hydropower still accounts for more than three-quarters of Zambia's generation, leaving the system exposed to rainfall and reservoir conditions.水电仍占赞比亚发电量的四分之三以上，使电力系统容易受到降雨和水库状况影响。
  • In 2025, Zambia's mining sector consumed more than three times as much electricity as the residential sector.2025年，赞比亚采矿业的用电量超过居民部门的三倍。

Solar expansion is helping Zambia diversify an electricity system that remains highly exposed to drought while facing rising mining demand.太阳能扩张正在帮助赞比亚分散一个既高度暴露于干旱风险、又面临采矿业需求增长的电力系统风险。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Future signal前瞻信号

Solar moves into the core power mix太阳能逐步成为电力结构的核心组成

Solar capacity has expanded rapidly since 2021 and is no longer only a supplemental resource. The government is targeting approximately 1,000 MW by the end of 2026.自2021年以来，太阳能装机容量快速增长，不再只是补充性电源。政府目标是在2026年底前实现约1,000兆瓦的太阳能装机容量。

Solar capacity太阳能装机容量

20262026年841 MW

End of 20262026年底1,000 MW

  • The 100-MW Maamba Solar project is the latest major addition to Zambia's solar portfolio.100兆瓦的Maamba Solar项目是赞比亚太阳能项目组合中最新的重要新增项目。
  • Copperbelt Energy Corporation's Itimpi solar site reached 196 MW after its 136-MW second phase was commissioned in May.Copperbelt Energy Corporation的Itimpi太阳能项目在5月完成136兆瓦二期工程后，总容量达到196兆瓦。
Consequence影响推演

Drought exposes hydropower dependence干旱暴露对水电的依赖

Hydropower remains dominant, but drought has already caused major disruptions. Lake Kariba's usable storage was higher than the previous year while still well below full capacity.水电仍占主导地位，但干旱已经造成重大电力供应中断。卡里巴湖可用于发电的储量高于上一年同期，但仍远未达到满库水平。

Lake Kariba usable storage卡里巴湖可用发电储量

September 28, 20262026年9月28日39 %

  • Hydropower accounts for more than three-quarters of Zambia's generation.水电占赞比亚发电量的四分之三以上。
  • During the severe 2023-24 drought, hydropower availability collapsed and electricity load shedding reached extraordinary levels.在2023至2024年的严重干旱期间，水电可用性骤降，限电达到异常严重的程度。
Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Mining growth raises the reliability challenge采矿业增长加大供电可靠性挑战

Mining already consumes more electricity than the residential sector, while Zambia aims to increase copper production toward 3 million metric tons annually. Officials have said the expansion would require several thousand additional megawatts of dependable power.采矿业目前的用电量已经高于居民部门，而赞比亚计划将铜产量提高到每年约300万吨。官员表示，这一扩张需要新增数千兆瓦的可靠电力供应。

  • In 2025, mining consumed more than three times as much electricity as the residential sector.2025年，采矿业用电量超过居民部门的三倍。
  • Only about half of Zambia's population currently has electricity access.目前赞比亚只有约一半人口能够获得电力供应。
Future signal前瞻信号

Storage could improve grid flexibility储能可能提升电网灵活性

Zambia has limited large-scale electrical storage beyond its hydro reservoirs, but battery projects are beginning to develop. Storage could help balance variable solar generation and support regional electricity trading.除水电水库所提供的储能外，赞比亚目前的大规模电力储能有限，但电池项目正在开始发展。储能有助于平衡波动性太阳能发电，并支持区域电力交易。

Leopards Hill battery powerLeopards Hill电池项目功率

150 MW150兆瓦

Leopards Hill battery storageLeopards Hill电池储能容量

600 MWh600兆瓦时

  • The Leopards Hill system is the leading battery project under development in Zambia.Leopards Hill系统是赞比亚正在开发的主要电池项目。
  • Zambia participates in regional electricity trading through the Southern African Power Pool.赞比亚通过南部非洲电力联营参与区域电力交易。

03Timeline时间线

  1. 2026-05 Copperbelt Energy Corporation commissioned the 136-MW second phase of the Itimpi solar project.Copperbelt Energy Corporation完成了Itimpi太阳能项目136兆瓦二期工程的投运。
  2. 2026-09-24 The 100-MW Maamba Solar project supplied electricity to Zambia's national grid for the first time.100兆瓦的Maamba Solar项目首次向赞比亚国家电网供电。
  3. 2026-09-28 Lake Kariba was reported at 481 meters, representing about 39% of usable storage for power generation.据报告，卡里巴湖水位为481米，约相当于可用于发电储量的39%。
  4. 2026-10-05 Industrial Info Resources released its analysis of Zambia's solar expansion and hydropower risk.Industrial Info Resources发布了关于赞比亚太阳能扩张和水电风险的分析。

Key takeaway核心结论

Zambia's solar buildout is strengthening supply diversification, but drought exposure and mining-led demand continue to require dependable power, storage and regional coordination.赞比亚的太阳能扩张正在加强电力供应多元化，但干旱风险和采矿业驱动的需求增长仍需要可靠电源、储能和区域协调。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether Zambia reaches approximately 1,000 MW of solar capacity by the end of 2026.赞比亚能否在2026年底前达到约1,000兆瓦的太阳能装机容量。
  2. How the next rainy season affects reservoir recharge and hydropower output as El Niño strengthens.随着厄尔尼诺增强，下一次雨季将如何影响水库补水和水电出力。
  3. Whether battery-storage projects, including Leopards Hill, advance enough to improve grid flexibility.包括Leopards Hill在内的电池储能项目能否取得足够进展，从而提升电网灵活性。
  4. How planned copper-production growth changes Zambia's requirements for dependable electricity.计划中的铜产量增长将如何改变赞比亚对可靠电力供应的需求。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • Solar cannot replace the dispatchability and storage value of hydropower on its own.太阳能本身无法替代水电的可调度性和储能价值。
  • El Niño increases drought risk across parts of southern Africa but does not guarantee drought in Zambia.厄尔尼诺会增加南部非洲部分地区的干旱风险，但并不意味着赞比亚必然发生干旱。
  • The seasonal complementarity between solar and hydropower is useful but not perfectly inverse in every season.太阳能与水电具有一定季节互补性，但两者并非在每个季节都呈完全反向变化。

06Sources信息来源

  1. Zambia's Solar Expansion Builds Resilience Against Hydropower Ris...Zambia's Solar Expansion Builds Resilience Against Hydropower Ris... Industrial Info Resources · 2026-10-05

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