AI expands app reach, but data rules can halve the gains

01The Story新闻事实

A study of 27,727 mobile apps finds that moving from no AI to a typical level of AI use increases an app’s users by a factor of 3.5. The effect is about threefold in countries without discriminatory data restrictions but only 1.5-fold where data restrictions are high, highlighting a trade-off between regulatory goals and digital-services growth.一项对27,727款移动应用的研究发现，应用从不使用人工智能提升至典型水平后，用户数增加约3.5倍。在没有歧视性数据限制的国家，增幅约为3倍；在数据限制程度较高的国家，增幅仅为1.5倍，凸显监管目标与数字服务增长之间的权衡。

The study links descriptions of 27,727 apps with 63,679 AI patents owned by their developers; the apps were produced in 59 countries and used in 84 countries.该研究将27,727款应用的描述与其开发者拥有的63,679项人工智能专利联系起来；这些应用由59个国家生产，并在84个国家使用。
Moving from no AI to a typical level of AI use is associated with a 3.5-fold increase in users.从不使用人工智能提升至典型使用水平，与用户数增加3.5倍相关。
In countries without discriminatory data restrictions, the comparable increase is threefold, compared with 1.5-fold at high observed levels of data restrictiveness.在没有歧视性数据限制的国家，用户数增幅为3倍；在观察到的数据限制程度较高的国家，增幅为1.5倍。
Digital services account for about a quarter of world exports and a third of US exports, according to OECD 2023 figures cited by the column.根据专栏引用的经合组织2023年数据，数字服务约占全球出口的四分之一和美国出口的三分之一。
About 70% of mobile-app revenue comes from advertising, whose value depends heavily on user numbers and engagement.移动应用收入约70%来自广告，而广告价值高度依赖用户数量和参与度。

Cross-border data rules function as trade policy because they affect how effectively AI-enabled digital services can improve, expand and compete internationally.跨境数据规则实际上也是贸易政策，因为它们会影响人工智能数字服务改进产品、国际扩张和参与竞争的能力。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Cause因果关系

AI’s effect on app adoption人工智能对应用采用率的影响

The study estimates a large causal effect from relevant AI use rather than patenting or general firm innovativeness. A typical increase in AI deployment is associated with substantially more users.研究估计，真正产生显著影响的是与应用相关的人工智能使用，而不是专利数量或企业整体创新能力。人工智能部署达到典型水平后，用户数大幅增加。

User increase from no AI to typical AI从不使用人工智能到典型使用水平的用户增幅

3.5 times3.5倍

Estimated increase in log points估计的对数增幅

1.26 log points1.26对数点

The analysis uses an instrumental-variable strategy to address the possibility that successful apps are more likely to invest in AI.研究采用工具变量方法，以应对成功应用更可能投资人工智能这一潜在问题。
The result remains after excluding the largest apps and controlling for app characteristics, other firm innovation and firm size.在剔除最大型应用并控制应用特征、企业其他创新活动和企业规模后，该结果仍然成立。

Consequence影响推演

Data restrictions weaken AI gains数据限制削弱人工智能收益

AI depends on cross-border data for model training and personalisation. Where discriminatory data restrictions are high, the estimated effect of typical AI deployment on user numbers is roughly half the effect observed in less restrictive environments.人工智能依赖跨境数据进行模型训练和个性化服务。在歧视性数据限制程度较高的环境中，典型人工智能部署对用户数的估计影响约为限制较少环境的一半。

User increase without discriminatory data restrictions没有歧视性数据限制时的用户增幅

No discriminatory data restrictions没有歧视性数据限制时3 times

The policy measure covers cross-border data-transfer restrictions, local-storage requirements and rules that make it harder for foreign apps to reach local users and generate data.政策指标涵盖跨境数据传输限制、本地存储要求，以及使外国应用更难触达本地用户和生成数据的规则。
The measure uses custom components of the OECD Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index for 60 countries.该指标使用经合组织数字服务贸易限制指数的定制组成部分，覆盖60个国家。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Digital services are inherently international数字服务具有天然的国际属性

Foreign users are not limited to the largest platforms: the column says small apps have a foreign-user profile similar to the full sample. This means cross-border data rules can affect a broad range of firms, not only global technology leaders.外国用户并不只存在于最大型平台：专栏称，小型应用的外国用户分布与全样本相近。这意味着跨境数据规则可能影响广泛的企业，而不仅是全球科技巨头。

Facebook has about 90% of its users outside the US, while TikTok has almost half of its users outside its home market.Facebook约90%的用户在美国以外；TikTok几乎一半的用户位于其本土市场之外。
The apps in the study were produced in 59 countries and used in 84 countries.研究中的应用由59个国家生产，并在84个国家使用。

Contradiction矛盾之处

Regulation creates a policy trade-off监管带来政策权衡

The column does not conclude that data restrictions are necessarily undesirable. It identifies economic costs alongside concerns about privacy, national security, mental health, misinformation and foreign interference.专栏并未认为数据限制必然不可取，而是指出，隐私、国家安全、心理健康、虚假信息和外国干预等政策关切，可能伴随经济成本。

Some trade agreements promote freer data flows, while others restrict them through local-storage and related requirements.一些贸易协定推动更自由的数据流动，另一些则通过本地存储等要求限制数据流动。
The column describes cross-border data policy as a factor affecting which firms can expand internationally and where AI-enabled services can compete.专栏指出，跨境数据政策会影响哪些企业能够进行国际扩张，以及人工智能服务可以在哪些市场竞争。

03Timeline时间线

2022-11 ChatGPT was released; much of the research described in the column had been conducted before its release.ChatGPT发布；专栏所述研究的大部分工作在其发布前完成。
2026-10-04 CEPR published the VoxEU column presenting the study’s findings on AI, data restrictions and digital-services trade.CEPR发布VoxEU专栏，介绍人工智能、数据限制与数字服务贸易的研究发现。

Key takeaway核心结论

AI can greatly expand the international reach of digital services, but restrictive cross-border data rules can substantially reduce that effect.人工智能能够大幅扩大数字服务的国际覆盖面，但严格的跨境数据规则可能显著削弱这一作用。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether governments introduce or expand cross-border data-transfer and local-storage requirements.各国政府是否推出或扩大跨境数据传输和本地存储要求。
How future digital-services trade agreements balance freer data flows with privacy and national-security objectives.未来数字服务贸易协定如何在更自由的数据流动与隐私、安全目标之间取得平衡。
Whether the spread of large language models increases the importance of cross-border data access for digital services.大型语言模型的普及是否会进一步提高跨境数据获取对数字服务的重要性。
How smaller apps and foreign suppliers respond to rules that affect their ability to reach users and generate data.小型应用和外国供应商将如何应对影响其触达用户和生成数据能力的规则。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The estimated effects are based on the study’s app-level measures of AI use and observed data restrictiveness; the column does not establish that every type of AI service will show the same effects.这些估计基于研究对应用层面人工智能使用和观察到的数据限制程度的测量；专栏并未证明所有类型的人工智能服务都会产生相同影响。
Governments may judge the privacy, national-security and other policy benefits of restrictions to outweigh their economic costs.各国政府可能认为，数据限制在隐私、国家安全及其他政策方面的收益高于其经济成本。

06Sources信息来源

The impact of AI and cross-border data regulation on international trade in digital services | CEPRThe impact of AI and cross-border data regulation on international trade in digital services | CEPR CEPR · 2026-10-04

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