Resilient U.S. growth may help markets absorb higher rates — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

Resilient U.S. growth may help markets absorb higher rates美国经济韧性或帮助市场消化更高利率

Edward Jones says recent U.S. inflation data improved, while consumer spending, manufacturing activity and corporate profits remained supportive of economic growth. Although bond yields and interest rates have risen, the report argues that historical market performance suggests equities can remain resilient when economic conditions and earnings growth are healthy.Edward Jones表示，近期美国通胀数据有所改善，而消费者支出、制造业活动和企业利润仍支持经济增长。尽管债券收益率和利率上升，该报告认为，历史市场表现显示，当经济状况和盈利增长保持健康时，股市仍可能具有韧性。

Edward Jones 1 Oct 2026 2026年10月1日

33

Core PCE inflation, year over year核心个人消费支出通胀，同比

0.60.6

Real personal consumption growth实际个人消费增速

01The Story新闻事实

Edward Jones says recent U.S. inflation data improved, while consumer spending, manufacturing activity and corporate profits remained supportive of economic growth. Although bond yields and interest rates have risen, the report argues that historical market performance suggests equities can remain resilient when economic conditions and earnings growth are healthy.Edward Jones表示，近期美国通胀数据有所改善，而消费者支出、制造业活动和企业利润仍支持经济增长。尽管债券收益率和利率上升，该报告认为，历史市场表现显示，当经济状况和盈利增长保持健康时，股市仍可能具有韧性。

  • U.S. core PCE inflation rose 3.0% year over year in August, while its three-month annualized rate slowed to 2.0%.美国核心个人消费支出价格指数8月同比上涨3.0%，三个月年化增速放缓至2.0%。
  • Revised data showed average U.S. core PCE inflation was 3.0% during the first eight months of 2026, down from the previously reported 3.3%.修订后的数据显示，2026年前八个月美国核心个人消费支出通胀平均为3.0%，低于此前公布的3.3%。
  • U.S. nonfarm employment increased by 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%.美国9月非农就业人数增加29,000人，失业率小幅升至4.2%。
  • Real U.S. personal consumption rose 0.6% in August and was up 2.6% from a year earlier.美国实际个人消费8月增长0.6%，同比增长2.6%。
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5 in September, remaining in expansion territory.美国供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数9月维持在54.5，处于扩张区间。

The report links market resilience to the combination of moderating inflation, continued economic activity and strong corporate earnings despite higher interest rates.该报告认为，尽管利率上升，通胀放缓、经济活动持续和企业盈利强劲的组合仍可能支撑市场韧性。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Contradiction矛盾之处

Inflation is moderating, but remains above target通胀正在放缓，但仍高于目标

Shorter-term core PCE measures improved, and revisions lowered the estimated average for the first eight months of 2026. However, the report says 3.0% core inflation remains uncomfortably high for U.S. policymakers.核心个人消费支出的短期指标有所改善，修订数据也下调了2026年前八个月的平均水平。但报告指出，3.0%的核心通胀率对美国政策制定者而言仍然偏高。

Core PCE inflation, year over year核心个人消费支出通胀，同比

August 20262026年8月3 %

August 20262026年8月2 %

First eight months of 20262026年前八个月3 %

  • The six-month annualized core PCE rate declined to 2.7%, its lowest since December of the previous year.核心个人消费支出的六个月年化增速降至2.7%，为前一年12月以来最低。
Cause因果关系

Economic momentum remains broad-based经济动能仍具有广泛基础

Consumer spending, revised GDP growth, manufacturing activity and corporate profits all provided support for the report’s assessment that the broader U.S. economy remains resilient.消费者支出、上调后的国内生产总值增速、制造业活动和企业利润均支持该报告关于美国整体经济仍具韧性的判断。

Real personal consumption growth实际个人消费增速

August 20262026年8月0.6 %

August 20262026年8月2.6 %

Second quarter第二季度2.2 %

  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5 in September, while the Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.5 from 53.0 in August.美国供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数9月为54.5；加拿大标普全球制造业采购经理人指数则从8月的53.0降至51.5。
  • Nonfarm payroll growth averaged roughly 68,000 per month during the year.今年非农就业人数月均增长约68,000人。
Consequence影响推演

Higher yields create a test for equities收益率上升考验股市韧性

Long-term bond yields reached multidecade highs and the Federal Reserve raised rates in September. The report argues that strong economic growth and earnings can help equities withstand elevated interest rates.长期债券收益率升至数十年高位，美联储于9月加息。报告认为，强劲的经济增长和企业盈利可能帮助股市承受较高利率。

  • TSX earnings are expected to grow by more than 25% this year, while S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow by over 30%.市场预计TSX指数成分股今年盈利增长超过25%，标普500指数成分股盈利预计增长超过30%。
  • The report says historical evidence does not show that sharp yield increases necessarily derail equities when economic conditions remain supportive.报告称，历史证据显示，当经济环境仍具支持性时，收益率大幅上升并不一定会令股市受挫。

Key takeaway核心结论

For the report, resilient U.S. growth and corporate profits are the main buffers against the pressure from higher rates and bond yields.该报告认为，具有韧性的美国经济增长和企业利润，是抵御利率与债券收益率上升压力的主要缓冲。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether U.S. core inflation continues to moderate from its 3.0% year-over-year level.美国核心通胀是否会继续低于目前3.0%的同比水平。
  2. Whether the Federal Reserve implements the report’s base case of two additional rate increases.美联储是否会按照报告的基本情景再加息两次。
  3. Whether consumer spending and manufacturing activity continue to support corporate earnings.消费者支出和制造业活动能否继续支持企业盈利。
  4. Whether elevated long-term bond yields test equity-market resilience in the final stretch of the year.长期债券收益率维持高位是否会在年末阶段考验股市韧性。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The report says lingering geopolitical risks and above-target inflation could affect the timing of future Federal Reserve decisions.报告称，持续的地缘政治风险和高于目标的通胀可能影响美联储未来决策的时机。
  • The September employment increase was below consensus expectations, creating uncertainty about the pace of labor-market growth.9月就业增幅低于市场共识预期，使劳动力市场增长速度面临不确定性。
  • The report’s preference for equities over fixed income depends on continued economic growth and corporate-profit resilience.报告偏好股票而非固定收益资产的判断，取决于经济增长和企业利润能否持续保持韧性。

06Sources信息来源

  1. Weekly stock market update | Edward JonesWeekly stock market update | Edward Jones Edward Jones · 2026-10-01

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