AI Memory Boom Seen Lasting 3–4 Years as China Narrows Gap

01The Story新闻事实

TechInsights expects AI-driven memory demand to keep supply constrained and prices elevated for the next three to four years, although new capacity should gradually ease shortages. The firm also identifies China’s CXMT and YMTC as increasingly competitive in DRAM and NAND, making their technology progress and capacity expansion important variables for the market.TechInsights预计，人工智能驱动的内存需求将在未来3至4年持续使供应紧张并支撑较高价格，但新增产能应逐步缓解短缺。该机构还指出，中国的CXMT和YMTC在DRAM和NAND领域正变得更具竞争力，其技术进展和产能扩张将成为影响市场的重要变量。

Current memory supply is estimated at about 85% of demand, with demand indexed at 100.目前内存供应量估计约为需求量的85%，其中需求量以100为基准。
Supply is expected to rise to 90–95% of demand next year, while a balanced market typically requires supply to exceed demand by 2–3%.明年供应量预计将升至需求量的90%至95%；而市场通常需要供应超过需求2%至3%才算达到平衡。
Short-term AI memory demand is growing by 4x to 6x, compared with historical growth rates of 1.2x to 1.4x.短期人工智能内存需求增长达到4倍至6倍，而历史增长率为1.2倍至1.4倍。
CXMT has announced mass production of its fifth-generation G5 DRAM platform, with an Active Area half-pitch of 11.95 nanometers.CXMT已宣布第五代G5 DRAM工艺平台进入量产，其有源区半间距为11.95纳米。
YMTC has commercialized its hybrid-bonding-based Xtacking architecture and applies a Stair-Free architecture in high-stack NAND.YMTC已将基于混合键合的Xtacking架构商业化，并在高堆叠NAND中采用Stair-Free架构。

The memory cycle depends not only on sustained AI demand but also on whether China’s improving technology and expanding capacity accelerate future competition.内存周期不仅取决于人工智能需求能否持续，也取决于中国技术进步和产能扩张是否会加速未来竞争。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Consequence影响推演

Demand is outpacing supply需求增长超过供应能力

AI data-center demand has pushed memory requirements far above historical growth rates. Even with production facilities operating at full capacity, the market remains undersupplied, supporting elevated prices over the medium term.人工智能数据中心需求已使内存需求远超历史增长率。即使生产设施满负荷运行，市场仍处于供应不足状态，从而在中期支撑较高价格。

Current supply as share of demand当前供应占需求比例

Current目前85 %

Short term短期6 times

DRAM supply is estimated to be short by approximately 10–12%, with NAND facing a similar deficit.DRAM供应预计短缺约10%至12%，NAND也面临类似缺口。
Prices across DDR, LPDDR and HBM applications have risen by more than 80%, according to the interview.采访称，DDR、LPDDR和HBM应用的价格均上涨超过80%。

Future signal前瞻信号

Capacity relief will be gradual产能缓解将是渐进过程

New facilities under construction are expected to add output in about a year, but the shortage is not expected to be resolved within three to six months. Supply may improve next year without immediately ending the seller’s market.在建工厂预计约一年后增加产出，但短缺预计不会在三至六个月内解决。明年供应可能改善，但卖方市场不会立即结束。

Expected supply next year明年预计供应

95 % of demand95需求的百分比

Next year明年

Next year明年95 % of demand

Current目前85 % of demand

Expected duration of elevated prices较高价格预计持续时间

3 years3年

Outlook展望期

Outlook展望期3 years

Upper estimate最高估计4 years

The supply shortage is expected to begin easing gradually in the third or fourth quarter of next year.供应短缺预计将在明年第三或第四季度开始逐步缓解。
New facility investments generally require at least one and a half to two years to produce output.新的工厂投资通常至少需要一年半至两年才能形成产出。

Comparison对比

China is moving from follower to competitor中国正从追赶者转向竞争者

TechInsights says CXMT is narrowing the DRAM process gap by skipping generations, while YMTC has commercialized advanced NAND architectures. Their progress could intensify competition as Chinese manufacturers expand production capacity.TechInsights表示，CXMT通过跨越工艺世代缩小DRAM差距，YMTC则已将先进NAND架构商业化。随着中国制造商扩大产能，这些进展可能加剧市场竞争。

CXMT G5 Active Area half-pitchCXMT G5有源区半间距

11.95 nanometers11.95纳米

G5G5

CXMT internal DRAM generations listedCXMT列出的内部DRAM世代

4 generations4个世代

Current classification当前分类

CXMT’s internal classifications include G1 at 19nm, G3 at 18nm and G4 in the 16nm class.CXMT的内部分类包括19纳米的G1、18纳米的G3以及16纳米级别的G4。
TechInsights assessed that CXMT may have skipped another one or two generations, although product characteristics, cell size and die size require further analysis.TechInsights评估称，CXMT可能再次跨越了一至两个世代，但产品特性、存储单元尺寸和芯片尺寸仍需进一步分析。
YMTC uses wafer bonding for Xtacking and Stair-Free architecture to reduce peripheral-area overhead in high-stack NAND.YMTC通过晶圆键合实现Xtacking，并利用Stair-Free架构降低高堆叠NAND中的外围区域开销。

03Timeline时间线

2026-10-05 The Elec published the TechInsights interview on the memory market and China’s semiconductor technology progress.The Elec刊发TechInsights关于内存市场及中国半导体技术进展的采访。

Key takeaway核心结论

AI demand is sustaining a multi-year memory upcycle, but China’s advances in DRAM and NAND could reshape competition as new capacity comes online.人工智能需求正在支撑持续数年的内存上行周期，但随着新增产能投产，中国在DRAM和NAND领域的进步可能重塑竞争格局。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether memory supply reaches the projected 90–95% of demand next year.明年内存供应能否达到预计的需求量90%至95%。
Whether shortages begin easing in the third or fourth quarter of next year.供应短缺是否会在明年第三或第四季度开始缓解。
How CXMT’s G5 DRAM technology performs in product characteristics, cell size and die size.CXMT的G5 DRAM技术在产品特性、存储单元尺寸和芯片尺寸方面的实际表现。
Whether expanding capacity by Chinese manufacturers intensifies medium- to long-term memory competition.中国制造商扩大产能是否会加剧中长期内存市场竞争。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The interview distinguishes between price dynamics and physical supply; prices may fluctuate even if the broader environment remains favorable.采访区分了价格走势与实际供应；即使整体环境仍然有利，价格也可能出现波动。
The technological assessment of CXMT remains subject to further analysis of operating characteristics, cell size and die size.对CXMT技术水平的评估仍需进一步分析其运行特性、存储单元尺寸和芯片尺寸。
The source does not establish whether the projected AI demand growth and elevated pricing will continue unchanged throughout the full three- to four-year period.消息来源并未确定人工智能需求增长和高价环境是否会在整个3至4年期间保持不变。

06Sources信息来源

"Memory Boom to Last 3–4 Years"; China's Technological Catch-Up a Key Variable < Y Insight < 기사본문 - The Elec Inc."Memory Boom to Last 3–4 Years"; China's Technological Catch-Up a Key Variable < Y Insight < 기사본문 - The Elec Inc. The Elec Inc. · 2026-10-05

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