Cebu grid constraints expose gaps in Philippine renewable auctions

01The Story新闻事实

Recurring red alerts in the Visayas show that low-cost renewable projects in Negros and Panay cannot always deliver power to Cebu because subsea transmission links are congested. Aurora Energy Research analyst Patrick Tan said procurement should consider project location, storage and transmission readiness, while Cebu may need more local renewable generation.米沙鄢群岛反复出现的红色警报显示，内格罗斯和班乃岛的低成本可再生能源项目并不总能向宿务供电，原因是海底输电线路拥堵。Aurora Energy Research分析师Patrick Tan表示，能源采购应考虑项目位置、储能和输电准备情况，宿务也可能需要增加本地可再生能源发电。

Cebu accounts for about half of electricity demand in the Visayas, making regional grid stability heavily dependent on the province.宿务约占米沙鄢群岛电力需求的一半，使区域电网稳定性高度依赖该省。
The National Grid Corp issued at least 20 red alert notices in August, while the Visayas grid had recorded about 40 red alerts by mid-September.National Grid Corp在8月发布了至少20次红色警报；截至9月中旬，米沙鄢电网全年已记录约40次红色警报。
As of 3 September, projected available capacity in the Visayas was 2,187 megawatts against peak demand of 2,575 megawatts, leaving a 388-megawatt shortfall.截至9月3日，米沙鄢群岛预计可用容量为2,187兆瓦，而峰值需求为2,575兆瓦，存在388兆瓦缺口。
The Green Energy Auction Program was launched in 2022 to make renewable energy procurement in the Philippines competitive.绿色能源拍卖计划于2022年启动，旨在使菲律宾可再生能源采购更具竞争性。
Tan said future auctions could set island-specific targets for renewable capacity or battery storage, including dedicated volumes for Cebu.Tan表示，未来拍卖可以设定按岛屿划分的可再生能源容量或电池储能目标，包括为宿务设定专门的采购量。

The story shows that renewable capacity can fail to improve electricity security when transmission constraints prevent low-cost generation from reaching the main demand centre.这则报道显示，当输电约束阻碍低成本电力抵达主要需求中心时，可再生能源装机并不一定能改善供电安全。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Consequence影响推演

A persistent supply gap持续存在的供需缺口

The Visayas was projected to have less available capacity than peak demand as generating units remained out of service or operated below capacity. This helps explain the region’s red and yellow alerts.由于部分发电机组停运或降负荷运行，米沙鄢群岛预计可用容量低于峰值需求。这有助于解释该地区出现红色和黄色警报的原因。

Projected available capacity预计可用容量

2,187 MW2,187兆瓦

3 September9月3日

Peak demand峰值需求

2,575 MW2,575兆瓦

3 September9月3日

Shortfall供电缺口

388 MW388兆瓦

3 September9月3日

The Visayas grid had logged about 40 red alerts by mid-September.截至9月中旬，米沙鄢电网已记录约40次红色警报。
The National Grid Corp issued at least 20 red alert notices in August.National Grid Corp在8月发布了至少20次红色警报。

Contradiction矛盾之处

Location can outweigh the lowest tariff项目位置可能比最低电价更重要

The auction favours low-cost projects in Negros and Panay, but congested subsea links can prevent their electricity from reaching Cebu. This creates a mismatch between competitive project pricing and the location of demand.拍卖机制倾向于支持内格罗斯和班乃岛的低成本项目，但拥堵的海底输电线路可能阻止这些项目向宿务输电。这造成了项目竞价价格与需求所在地之间的不匹配。

Cebu accounts for about half of electricity demand in the Visayas.宿务约占米沙鄢群岛电力需求的一半。
Tan said transmission constraints can leave Cebu short of supply even when renewable plants in Negros and Panay are generating.Tan表示，即使内格罗斯和班乃岛的可再生能源电站正在发电，输电约束仍可能导致宿务供电不足。

Consequence影响推演

Diesel backup despite available solar power有太阳能电力可用时仍需柴油备用

When transmission congestion limits imports, Cebu may dispatch diesel-fired open-cycle gas turbines during periods of high demand or system stress. This can raise electricity prices even when cheaper solar generation is available elsewhere in the region.当输电拥堵限制外来电力输入时，宿务可能在高需求或系统承压期间启用柴油燃烧的开式燃气轮机。即使区域其他地区有更便宜的太阳能发电，这也可能推高电价。

The article says Cebu can rely on diesel-fired open-cycle gas turbines when renewable power cannot be transported through congested links.报道说，当可再生能源电力无法通过拥堵线路输送时，宿务可能依赖柴油燃烧的开式燃气轮机。
The Philippine electricity market uses nodal pricing to reflect congestion and line losses.菲律宾电力市场采用节点电价，以反映输电拥堵和线路损耗。

Future signal前瞻信号

Transmission timing is critical输电升级时机至关重要

NGCP’s 2026 Transmission Development Plan includes measures to strengthen subsea cables, but the upgrades need to be completed before awarded renewable projects begin delivering electricity. Otherwise, projects could face severe curtailment.NGCP的2026年输电发展计划包括加强海底电缆的措施，但这些升级需要在已获授予的可再生能源项目开始供电前完成。否则，项目可能面临严重限电。

Many projects awarded under the fourth Green Energy Auction Program are located in Negros and Panay.第四轮绿色能源拍卖计划授予的许多项目位于内格罗斯和班乃岛。
Tan urged NGCP to accelerate upgrades to inter-island subsea transmission links.Tan敦促NGCP加快岛际海底输电线路升级。

03Timeline时间线

2022 The Philippines launched the Green Energy Auction Program to make renewable energy procurement competitive.菲律宾启动绿色能源拍卖计划，使可再生能源采购更具竞争性。

Key takeaway核心结论

For the Visayas, the value of new renewable energy depends not only on generation cost but also on whether transmission and local demand can absorb it.对米沙鄢群岛而言，新建可再生能源的价值不仅取决于发电成本，也取决于输电能力和本地需求能否消纳这些电力。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether NGCP completes subsea transmission upgrades before new Green Energy Auction Program projects begin delivering power.NGCP能否在绿色能源拍卖计划的新项目开始供电前完成海底输电线路升级。
Whether future auctions introduce island-specific procurement targets for Cebu and other constrained locations.未来拍卖是否会为宿务及其他受输电约束地区设定按岛屿划分的采购目标。
Whether Cebu attracts more solar, onshore wind and battery storage near its electricity demand centres.宿务是否会在电力需求中心附近增加太阳能、陆上风电和电池储能项目。
Whether continued grid alerts lead to greater reliance on diesel-fired generation and higher electricity prices.持续的电网警报是否会导致对柴油发电的依赖增加并推高电价。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The article does not specify when the planned transmission upgrades will be completed.报道没有说明计划中的输电升级何时完成。
It remains unclear how much renewable capacity or battery storage future island-specific auctions would procure for Cebu.未来按岛屿划分的拍卖将为宿务采购多少可再生能源容量或电池储能，尚不明确。
Higher land and construction costs in Cebu may make local projects more difficult to develop than projects in Negros and Panay.宿务较高的土地和建设成本可能使本地项目比内格罗斯和班乃岛的项目更难开发。

06Sources信息来源

Renewable project location matters as much as technology, capacity, says clean energy expert | News | Eco-Business | Asia PacificRenewable project location matters as much as technology, capacity, says clean energy expert | News | Eco-Business | Asia Pacific Eco-Business · 2026-10-02

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