Trade barriers raise cost risks for U.S. solar and storage — Eter News

Enriched Analysis 深度解析

Trade barriers raise cost risks for U.S. solar and storage贸易壁垒推高美国太阳能与储能成本风险

McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2026 says fragmented trade and higher tariffs could significantly raise costs for U.S. solar and battery storage projects. Battery energy storage faces a projected 40% to 50% capital-expenditure premium, while rising equipment, network, land and interconnection costs could offset declining generation costs as data-center-driven electricity demand accelerates.麦肯锡《全球能源展望2026》称，贸易碎片化和更高关税可能显著推高美国太阳能与电池储能项目成本。报告预计，电池储能资本支出可能增加40%至50%；随着数据中心推动用电需求加速增长，设备、电网、土地和并网成本上升，可能抵消发电成本下降带来的优势。

pv magazine USA 2 Oct 2026 2026年10月2日

4040

Projected storage capital-expenditure increase, lower bound储能资本支出预计增幅下限

7070

Approximate decline in global solar module prices全球太阳能组件价格降幅约

01The Story新闻事实

McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2026 says fragmented trade and higher tariffs could significantly raise costs for U.S. solar and battery storage projects. Battery energy storage faces a projected 40% to 50% capital-expenditure premium, while rising equipment, network, land and interconnection costs could offset declining generation costs as data-center-driven electricity demand accelerates.麦肯锡《全球能源展望2026》称，贸易碎片化和更高关税可能显著推高美国太阳能与电池储能项目成本。报告预计，电池储能资本支出可能增加40%至50%；随着数据中心推动用电需求加速增长，设备、电网、土地和并网成本上升，可能抵消发电成本下降带来的优势。

  • Under McKinsey’s “Fragmented Energy Order” scenario, battery energy storage capital expenditure could increase by 40% to 50%.在麦肯锡的“碎片化能源秩序”情景下，电池储能资本支出可能增加40%至50%。
  • Global solar module prices have fallen approximately 70% to about $0.08 per watt.全球太阳能组件价格已下降约70%，至每瓦约0.08美元。
  • Aluminum frames account for roughly 14% of total solar panel production costs.铝制边框约占太阳能板总生产成本的14%。
  • U.S. electricity demand is accelerating, driven largely by artificial intelligence and data-center expansion.美国电力需求正在加速增长，主要受到人工智能和数据中心扩张的推动。
  • McKinsey identifies renewable-energy-plus-battery systems as a core option for firming intermittent generation.麦肯锡将可再生能源加电池系统列为平滑间歇性发电、提供稳定供电的核心方案之一。

Falling solar technology prices may no longer translate directly into cheaper U.S. projects as trade exposure, network costs and rising power demand reshape project economics.随着贸易风险、电网成本和电力需求增长重塑项目经济性，太阳能技术价格下降可能不再直接转化为美国项目成本下降。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Cause因果关系

Storage bears the largest cost premium储能面临最高成本溢价

McKinsey says battery storage is particularly exposed to cathode-material tariffs, critical-mineral bottlenecks and barriers to localizing supply chains. The projected capital-expenditure increase is the largest among the low-carbon assets discussed in the report.麦肯锡称，电池储能尤其容易受到正极材料关税、关键矿产瓶颈和供应链本地化障碍的影响。报告讨论的低碳资产中，电池储能预计面临最高的资本支出增幅。

Projected storage capital-expenditure increase, lower bound储能资本支出预计增幅下限

Fragmented Energy Order scenario“碎片化能源秩序”情景40 %

Fragmented Energy Order scenario“碎片化能源秩序”情景50 %

  • The cost increase is linked to cathode material tariffs, critical mineral bottlenecks and supply-chain localization barriers.成本增加与正极材料关税、关键矿产瓶颈及供应链本地化障碍有关。
Contradiction矛盾之处

Cheaper modules do not remove system costs组件降价并未消除系统成本

Solar module prices have declined sharply, but steel, aluminum, balance-of-system equipment, transmission and interconnection costs continue to affect project economics. McKinsey warns that these rising network and balance-of-system costs could offset lower generation costs.太阳能组件价格大幅下降，但钢材、铝材、系统平衡设备、输电和并网成本仍在影响项目经济性。麦肯锡警告，电网和系统平衡成本上升可能抵消发电成本下降。

Approximate decline in global solar module prices全球太阳能组件价格降幅约

Not specified未注明70 %

Not specified未注明0.08 $ per watt

Not specified未注明14 %

  • Steel is a primary cost driver for ground-mounted tracking systems and structural racking.钢材是地面安装跟踪系统和结构支架的主要成本驱动因素。
Consequence影响推演

Demand growth increases the need for firm capacity需求增长提高对稳定容量的需求

Artificial intelligence and data-center expansion are accelerating U.S. electricity demand. Renewable generation paired with batteries can provide firming capacity, but higher renewable penetration also increases land, siting and interconnection complexity in high-demand regions.人工智能和数据中心扩张正在加快美国电力需求增长。可再生能源配套电池能够提供稳定化容量，但更高的可再生能源渗透率也会增加高需求地区的土地、选址和并网复杂性。

  • Gigawatt-scale data-center announcements are reshaping power-market planning.规模达吉瓦级的数据中心公告正在重塑电力市场规划。
  • Natural gas currently serves as a proxy for reliability across the scenarios, while battery deployment remains important for long-term decarbonization.在这些情景中，天然气目前充当可靠性保障的替代方案，而电池部署对长期脱碳仍然重要。

03Timeline时间线

  1. 2026-10-02 pv magazine USA published its report on McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2026.pv magazine USA刊发关于麦肯锡《全球能源展望2026》的报道。
  2. 2050 McKinsey projects Europe’s fossil-fuel dependence falling from 60% to 30%.麦肯锡预计，到2050年欧洲对化石燃料的依赖将从60%降至30%。

Key takeaway核心结论

U.S. solar and storage growth is increasingly shaped by trade exposure, supply-chain resilience, grid investment and the need to serve rapidly rising electricity demand.美国太阳能与储能增长正越来越受到贸易风险、供应链韧性、电网投资以及满足快速增长电力需求的共同影响。

04What to Watch后续关注

  1. Whether U.S. developers diversify suppliers and map exposure to critical minerals and components.美国开发商是否会分散供应商，并梳理关键矿产和组件的供应链风险。
  2. Whether data-center power procurement supports projects in markets less sensitive to marginal price increases.数据中心电力采购是否会支持那些对边际价格上涨不太敏感的市场项目。
  3. How network operators and power producers coordinate storage deployment with industrial electrification and transmission maintenance.电网运营商和发电企业如何将储能部署与工业电气化及输电维护协调起来。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

  • The report does not specify the timing or detailed policy assumptions behind the fragmented-trade scenario.报道没有说明贸易碎片化情景的具体时间范围或详细政策假设。
  • The extent to which falling generation costs will offset higher equipment, network, land and interconnection costs remains uncertain.发电成本下降将在多大程度上抵消设备、电网、土地和并网成本上升，仍存在不确定性。

06Sources信息来源

  1. U.S. solar and storage face cost headwinds under fragmented trade, McKinsey report finds - pv magazine USAU.S. solar and storage face cost headwinds under fragmented trade, McKinsey report finds - pv magazine USA pv magazine USA · 2026-10-02

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