How Britain can keep the grid stable in an electrified world电气化时代，英国如何维持电网稳定

01The Story新闻事实

The shift to wind, solar, electric vehicles and heat pumps is making electricity systems harder to balance because supply is weather-dependent while demand is rising. Britain may need total generation capacity to increase by 206–245 per cent between 2024 and 2050. The response is likely to combine smart charging, consumer flexibility, batteries, pumped storage and other long-duration technologies.向风能、太阳能、电动汽车和热泵转型，使电力系统更难维持平衡：供应受天气影响，而需求持续上升。英国电力系统运营商的模型显示，2024年至2050年间，英国总发电容量可能需要增加206%至245%。应对方式可能包括智能充电、消费者需求侧灵活性、电池、抽水蓄能及其他长时储能技术。

• Britain’s electricity system operator estimates that total generation capacity may need to rise by 206–245 per cent between 2024 and 2050.英国电力系统运营商估计，2024年至2050年间，英国总发电容量可能需要增加206%至245%。
• Electric cars are around two to four times more efficient than fossil-fuel vehicles, while heat pumps are around three to five times more efficient than gas-fired boilers, according to the IEA.国际能源署称，电动汽车的效率约为化石燃料汽车的2至4倍，热泵的效率约为燃气锅炉的3至5倍。
• Twenty-two EV models in production this year can sell electricity back to the grid, including 13 in Europe.今年在产的电动汽车车型中，有22款能够向电网回售电力，其中13款在欧洲生产。
• Britain has almost 8GW of batteries available, most of which can discharge at full rate for two hours.英国目前拥有近8吉瓦的可用电池储能，其中大多数可按满功率放电两小时。
• The proposed Coire Glas pumped-storage project in Scotland could supply 1.4GW of electricity for 32 hours continuously.拟建于苏格兰的Coire Glas抽水蓄能项目可连续32小时供应1.4吉瓦电力。

Electrification can improve energy efficiency, but it requires a much more flexible grid to manage variable renewable supply and new sources of demand.电气化能够提高能源效率，但也要求电网具备更强的灵活性，以应对可变的可再生能源供应和新增用电需求。

024 Dimensions维度分析

03Timeline时间线

1. 2024 Britain’s electricity system operator uses 2024 as the baseline for projected capacity and demand-side flexibility changes.英国电力系统运营商以2024年为基准，预测发电容量和需求侧灵活性的变化。
2. 2026-06 Batteries formed the bulk of projects provisionally selected in Ofgem’s competition for long-duration storage.在Ofgem为长时储能举办的竞赛中，电池项目构成了暂定入选项目的主体。
3. 2030 Britain aims to expand demand-side flexibility roughly fivefold from 2024 levels; up to 2mn UK cars could potentially export electricity to the grid.英国计划将需求侧灵活性提高至2024年水平的约五倍；届时可能有多达200万辆英国汽车向电网供电。
4. 2050 Britain’s total generation capacity may need to be 206–245 per cent higher than in 2024.英国总发电容量可能需要比2024年高出206%至245%。

Key takeaway核心结论

Keeping an electrified, renewable-heavy grid reliable will depend on expanding capacity while coordinating flexible demand and multiple forms of storage.要维持电气化且高度依赖可再生能源的电网可靠运行，关键在于扩大容量，同时协调灵活用电需求和多种储能形式。

04What to Watch后续关注

1. Whether smart charging, time-of-use tariffs and smart meters achieve the targeted increase in demand-side flexibility by 2030.智能充电、分时电价和智能电表能否在2030年前实现需求侧灵活性目标。
2. Whether bidirectional charging can overcome cost, network-capacity and technical-standard barriers.双向充电能否克服成本、电网容量和技术标准方面的障碍。
3. How quickly Britain’s battery capacity expands and whether storage duration increases beyond the current two-hour norm for most batteries.英国电池储能容量扩张的速度，以及大多数电池目前约两小时的放电时长能否延长。
4. Whether pumped hydro, compressed air, liquid air and underground hydrogen can provide cost-effective storage for longer periods.抽水蓄能、压缩空气、液态空气和地下储氢能否以具有成本效益的方式提供更长时段的储能。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

• The feasibility of storing hydrogen at scale remains in doubt because of high production costs and poor efficiency.由于制氢成本高且效率较低，大规模储氢的可行性仍存疑。
• The source does not establish whether the proposed storage projects will be built or when they will become operational.来源没有说明拟议储能项目是否会建成，以及何时投入运行。
• The expected contribution of electric vehicles to grid balancing depends on consumer adoption, network capacity and agreement on technical standards.电动汽车对电网平衡的预期贡献取决于消费者采用程度、电网容量以及技术标准能否达成一致。

06Sources信息来源

1. How to keep the lights on in an electrified worldHow to keep the lights on in an electrified world Financial Times · 2026-10-02

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