Can solar power reach everyone, everywhere by 2030?

01The Story新闻事实

Climate leaders are urging governments, businesses and investors to deliver clean, affordable electricity to everyone by 2030, including the roughly 655 million people without electricity access. Solar deployment is accelerating, but experts say a global transition would require much greater political commitment, financing and infrastructure, with worldwide renewable penetration potentially taking until 2040 to reach 80% to 90%.气候领域人士呼吁各国政府、企业和投资者在2030年前为所有人提供清洁、可负担的电力，其中包括约6.55亿名尚未用上电的人。太阳能部署正在加速，但专家表示，全球能源转型仍需要更强的政治支持、融资和基础设施；全球可再生能源发电占比达到80%至90%可能要等到2040年。

Global solar generation increased by a record 30% in 2025 compared with the previous year and has grown more than tenfold since 2015.2025年全球太阳能发电量较上年创纪录增长30%，自2015年以来增长了十多倍。
Installed solar capacity worldwide is about 3 terawatts, while roughly 1 terawatt of new photovoltaic capacity is added each year.全球太阳能装机容量约为3太瓦，每年新增光伏容量约1太瓦。
An estimated 655 million people still lack access to electricity.估计仍有6.55亿人无法获得电力供应。
Eicke Weber estimates that about 50 terawatts of solar capacity would be needed to fully shift global energy supply to renewables.Eicke Weber估计，如果要让全球能源供应完全转向可再生能源，可能需要约50太瓦太阳能容量。
In 2025, renewable energy sources overtook coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 100 years, according to Ember's analysis.Ember的分析显示，2025年可再生能源在全球电力结构中的占比一百年来首次超过煤电。

Solar deployment is advancing rapidly, but achieving universal electricity access and a predominantly renewable global system depends on political will, financing and the pace of infrastructure expansion.太阳能部署正在快速推进，但要实现全民用电和以可再生能源为主的全球电力体系，仍取决于政治意愿、融资能力和基础设施扩张速度。

023 Dimensions维度分析

Comparison对比

Rapid expansion, large remaining gap快速扩张与巨大的剩余缺口

Solar has reached record growth rates and a global installed base of about 3 terawatts. Yet the proposed transition would require capacity to rise substantially beyond current annual additions.太阳能已达到创纪录的增长速度，全球装机规模约为3太瓦。但要实现所设想的转型，装机容量仍需大幅超过目前的年度新增规模。

Solar growth in 20252025年太阳能增长率

20252025年30 %

20262026年3 TW

Estimated capacity needed for a full renewable shift完全转向可再生能源所需的估计容量50 TW

Solar capacity has risen more than tenfold since 2015.太阳能容量自2015年以来增长了十多倍。
The world currently adds about 1 terawatt of new photovoltaic capacity each year.目前全球每年新增光伏容量约1太瓦。

Stakeholder impact利益相关方

Electricity access remains uneven电力供应仍不均衡

Solar could help areas without electricity bypass fossil-fuel infrastructure, but the article says electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa would need to triple to achieve universal access by 2030.太阳能可能帮助缺电地区绕过化石燃料基础设施，但文章指出，撒哈拉以南非洲的电气化速度需要提高至目前的三倍，才能在2030年前实现全民用电。

People without electricity access无法获得电力的人口

655 million people655百万人

Required increase in Sub-Saharan Africa's electrification pace撒哈拉以南非洲所需电气化速度增幅

3 times current pace3当前速度的倍数

by 2030到2030年

The open letter calls for clean, affordable energy for everyone, everywhere by 2030.这封公开信呼吁在2030年前让所有地方的所有人获得清洁、可负担的能源。
The article says China and Pakistan have already moved ahead with solar deployment.文章称，中国和巴基斯坦已经在太阳能部署方面走在前列。

Future signal前瞻信号

Political will and finance are decisive政治意愿与融资是关键

Experts interviewed by DW say the technologies and financing capacity exist, but a worldwide transition would require strong political backing, blended finance and societal support. One expert estimates that reaching 80% to 90% renewable electricity worldwide would likely take until 2040.接受DW采访的专家表示，相关技术和融资能力已经存在，但全球转型需要强有力的政治支持、混合融资和社会支持。一位专家估计，全球可再生能源发电占比达到80%至90%可能要到2040年。

Renewable share target discussed for worldwide electricity全球电力中可再生能源占比目标

Renewable share target discussed for worldwide electricity全球电力中可再生能源占比目标80 %

McKenna called for governments, the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the private sector to provide blended finance.McKenna呼吁各国政府、世界银行、非洲开发银行和私营部门提供混合融资。
Weber described the 2030 ambition as possible only through a major program with serious political backing.Weber表示，2030年的目标只有通过一项获得强力政治支持的大型计划才可能实现。

03Timeline时间线

2015 Solar power began the period during which its global capacity later rose more than tenfold.太阳能进入全球装机容量随后增长十多倍的时期。
2025 Solar generation grew 30% year on year, and renewables overtook coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 100 years.太阳能发电量同比增长30%，可再生能源在全球电力结构中的占比一百年来首次超过煤电。
2026 Climate leaders and experts debated whether universal solar-powered electricity access by 2030 is achievable.气候领域人士和专家讨论了在2030年前实现太阳能普惠供电是否可行。
2030 The open letter sets a goal of clean, affordable energy for everyone, everywhere.公开信提出让所有地方的所有人获得清洁、可负担能源的目标。
2040 One expert says worldwide renewable electricity could reach 80% to 90% only around this time.一位专家表示，全球可再生能源发电占比可能要到这一时期才能达到80%至90%。

Key takeaway核心结论

Solar's technological and cost advantages are accelerating deployment, but the 2030 universal-access goal remains dependent on political decisions, financing and delivery capacity.太阳能在技术和成本上的优势正在加快部署，但2030年实现全民用电的目标仍取决于政治决策、融资和执行能力。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether governments and development banks mobilize the blended finance proposed for universal electricity access.各国政府和开发银行是否会调动为全民用电所提出的混合融资。
Whether electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa accelerates to three times its current pace by 2030.撒哈拉以南非洲的电气化速度能否在2030年前提高至当前的三倍。
Whether annual photovoltaic additions expand beyond the current level of about 1 terawatt.光伏年新增容量能否超过目前约1太瓦的水平。
Whether political backing can narrow the gap between the 2030 ambition and the longer 2040 transition horizon discussed by experts.政治支持能否缩小2030年目标与专家所讨论的2040年较长期转型时间表之间的差距。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The article presents the 2030 goal as ambitious and does not establish that universal solar access can be achieved on that timetable.文章将2030年目标描述为雄心勃勃，但没有证明能否按这一时间表实现全民太阳能供电。
The article cites both close to one billion people lacking reliable electricity and an estimate of 655 million people lacking electricity access; the figures refer to different access definitions.文章同时提到近10亿人缺乏可靠电力，以及约6.55亿人无法获得电力供应；这些数字对应的电力供应定义并不相同。
The proposed 50-terawatt requirement is an expert estimate for fully shifting global energy supply to renewables, not a confirmed deployment plan.约50太瓦的需求是专家对全球能源供应完全转向可再生能源的估算，并非已确定的部署计划。

06Sources信息来源

Is solar for all, everywhere possible by 2030?Is solar for all, everywhere possible by 2030? DW · 2026-10-02

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