EUR/USD at 16-Month Low Ahead of Friday's Eurozone Inflation and US Payrolls Test

01The Story新闻事实

EUR/USD has fallen to 1.1316, its weakest since May 2025, after a 2.3% September decline driven by widening US-German yield spreads rather than eurozone inflation. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, the highest since 2002, 173 basis points above the German Bund. Friday's eurozone flash inflation estimate and US payrolls report are framed as the key inflection point for the pair.欧元兑美元跌至1.1316，为2025年5月以来最低，9月下跌2.3%，主因美德国债收益率利差扩大，而非欧元区通胀。美国10年期国债收益率一度触及5.34%，为2002年以来最高，较德国国债高出173个基点。周五的欧元区通胀初值和美国非农数据被视为关键拐点。

EUR/USD traded at 1.1316, down 0.12% on the day and four pips above Tuesday's low of 1.1312, the euro's weakest since May 2025.欧元兑美元报1.1316，日内跌0.12%，仅比周二低点1.1312高4个点，为欧元自2025年5月以来最弱水平。
The euro fell 2.3% in September, from 1.1592 to 1.1330, its worst month since July 2025 and fourth consecutive weekly loss.9月欧元从1.1592跌至1.1330，跌幅2.3%，为2025年7月以来表现最差的月份，并连续四周收跌。
The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, versus Germany's 10-year Bund at 3.56% — a 173-basis-point gap favoring the dollar.美国10年期国债收益率触及5.34%，为2002年以来最高；德国10年期国债收益率为3.56%，利差达173个基点，利好美元。
Germany reported September inflation of 3.3%, its highest since December 2023; Spain reached 4.9% and France 3.4%.德国9月通胀率为3.3%，创2023年12月以来新高；西班牙达4.9%，法国为3.4%。
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 10 to a deposit facility rate of 2.50%, its second hike of 2026; markets price 24 basis points more by year-end.欧洲央行9月10日加息25个基点，存款便利利率升至2.50%，为2026年第二次加息；市场预计年底前还将加息24个基点。
The Fed hiked on Sept. 16, its first since 2023, and the US 10-year yield rose 54 basis points in September, its largest monthly jump since September 2022.美联储9月16日加息，为2023年以来首次；美国10年期国债收益率9月上升54个基点，为2022年9月以来最大单月涨幅。

EUR/USD is trading as a yield-spread trade on the US bond market rather than on eurozone inflation, so the 173-basis-point Treasury-Bund gap — not European price data — is what determines the euro's path.欧元兑美元的走势取决于美德国债收益率利差而非欧元区通胀，173个基点的利差而非欧洲物价数据才是决定欧元走向的关键。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Cause因果关系

Yield Spread Drives the Euro收益率利差主导欧元走势

The 10-year Treasury-Bund spread of 173 basis points (159 at the 2-year) in the dollar's favor explains the euro's slide; the spread widened 23 basis points in September as EUR/USD fell 2.3%.10年期美德国债利差达173个基点（2年期为159个基点）利好美元，解释了欧元下跌；9月利差扩大23个基点，同期欧元兑美元下跌2.3%。

US 10-year Treasury yield美国10年期国债收益率

Oct 1, 2026 intraday2026年10月1日盘中5.34 %

Oct 1, 20262026年10月1日3.56 %

Oct 20262026年10月173 bp

Oct 20262026年10月159 bp

Bund 10-year yields rose 31 basis points in September while US 10-year yields rose 54, widening the spread by 23 basis points.9月德国10年期国债收益率上升31个基点，美国上升54个基点，利差扩大23个基点。
A narrowing of the 10-year spread to 160 bp or less would likely lift EUR/USD toward 1.1425–1.1500; widening to 185 bp or more would push it toward 1.1200.若10年期利差收窄至160个基点或以下，欧元兑美元或升至1.1425–1.1500；若扩至185个基点或以上，则可能跌向1.1200。

Comparison对比

Diverging ECB and Fed Paths欧洲央行与美联储政策路径分化

Both central banks are tightening, but the Fed's September hike and signaled further increases have outpaced the ECB's smaller, slower hikes, keeping the rate gap in the dollar's favor.两大央行均在收紧政策，但美联储9月加息并暗示进一步紧缩，力度超过欧洲央行较小较慢的加息步伐，使利差持续利好美元。

ECB deposit facility rate欧洲央行存款便利利率

2.5 %2.5%

Sept 10, 20262026年9月10日

US 2-year Treasury yield美国2年期国债收益率

4.879 %4.879%

Sept 30, 20262026年9月30日

German 2-year Bund yield德国2年期国债收益率

3.29 %3.29%

Sept 29, 20262026年9月29日

Markets price 24 basis points of additional ECB tightening by year-end and an implied policy rate of 3.27% by July 2027.市场预计欧洲央行年底前再收紧24个基点，到2027年7月隐含政策利率达3.27%。
The market prices at least three more Fed increases by mid-2027 after the Sept. 16 hike, the first since 2023.美联储9月16日加息（2023年以来首次）后，市场预计到2027年年中至少还有三次加息。

Cause因果关系

Energy Inflation Weighs on Europe's Terms of Trade能源通胀拖累欧洲贸易条件

As a net energy importer, the eurozone faces energy inflation of 14.3% in August and crude above $90 for most of September, draining euros from the region and weakening the currency despite hawkish inflation prints.欧元区作为能源净进口方，8月能源通胀达14.3%，9月大部分时间原油价格高于90美元，资金外流拖累欧元，尽管通胀数据偏鹰。

Eurozone energy inflation欧元区能源通胀

14.3 %14.3%

August 20262026年8月

Germany inflation德国通胀率

3.3 %3.3%

September 20262026年9月

Spain inflation西班牙通胀率

4.9 %4.9%

September 20262026年9月

Energy-driven inflation is linked to the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting both ECB hikes in 2026.能源驱动的通胀与伊朗冲突及霍尔木兹海峡关闭有关，促使欧洲央行2026年两次加息。
The White House has urged the EU to release emergency diesel inventories, mostly held in Germany and France.白宫敦促欧盟释放应急柴油储备，其中大部分储存在德国和法国。

Future signal前瞻信号

Friday's Data as the Inflection Point周五数据成为关键拐点

Eurozone flash inflation (consensus 3.6% vs 3.2% in August) and the US September payrolls report land hours apart; a hot euro print plus soft US jobs is the one combination that could lift EUR/USD back above 1.1425, while strong payrolls would send it through 1.1300.欧元区通胀初值（预期3.6%，8月为3.2%）与美国9月非农数据相隔数小时发布；欧元数据偏热叠加美国就业疲软是推动欧元兑美元重上1.1425的唯一组合，而强劲非农将使其跌破1.1300。

Continuing claims fell to 1.701 million, and the dollar index is pushing toward 102.00, its highest since April 2025 after a 2% September gain.续请失业金人数降至170.1万；美元指数逼近102.00，为2025年4月以来最高，9月上涨2%。
The 1.1300 level coincides with the 200-week exponential moving average and the June and July lows near 1.1335.1.1300水平与200周指数移动均线及6、7月低点1.1335附近重合。

03Timeline时间线

2026-06 ECB raises rates to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023欧洲央行加息至2.25%，为2023年以来首次加息
2026-09-10 ECB hikes 25 bp, taking deposit facility rate to 2.50%欧洲央行加息25个基点，存款便利利率升至2.50%
2026-09-16 Fed delivers its first rate hike since 2023, signaling further tightening美联储实施2023年以来首次加息，并暗示进一步紧缩
2026-09-30 EUR/USD closes September at 1.1330, down 2.3% for the month欧元兑美元9月收于1.1330，当月下跌2.3%
2026-10-02 Eurozone September flash inflation (11:00 CEST) and US September payrolls due欧元区9月通胀初值（欧洲中部时间11:00）与美国9月非农数据公布

Key takeaway核心结论

The euro's decline is a dollar-yield story: with the Treasury-Bund spread at 173 basis points in Washington's favor, Friday's inflation and payrolls data will decide whether EUR/USD bounces above 1.1425 or breaks below 1.1300.欧元的下跌本质上是美元收益率的故事：美德国债利差达173个基点利好美国，周五的通胀与非农数据将决定欧元兑美元是反弹站上1.1425还是跌破1.1300。

04What to Watch后续关注

The euro-area September flash inflation estimate, with consensus at 3.6% versus August's 3.2%.欧元区9月通胀初值，市场预期为3.6%，8月终值为3.2%。
The US September payrolls report, which would push EUR/USD through 1.1300 if strong.美国9月非农就业报告，若表现强劲，欧元兑美元将跌破1.1300。
Whether the 10-year Treasury-Bund spread narrows toward 160 bp or widens toward 185 bp.10年期美德国债利差是收窄至160个基点还是扩大至185个基点。
Whether the 1.1300 support, near the 200-week moving average, holds.1.1300支撑位（接近200周均线）能否守住。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The source is an analyst forecast; the projected EUR/USD levels (1.1425–1.1500 or 1.1200) are scenario estimates, not outcomes.该文为分析师预测，文中欧元兑美元目标位（1.1425–1.1500或1.1200）为情景估计，并非既定结果。
The article text is truncated mid-sentence in the ECB projections section, so some long-term inflation expectation details are incomplete.文章在欧洲央行预测部分文字被截断，部分长期通胀预期细节不完整。
How much further the Fed tightens by mid-2027 remains subject to market pricing that could shift with incoming data.美联储到2027年年中的进一步紧缩幅度仍取决于市场定价，可能随数据变化而调整。

06Sources信息来源

EUR/USD Faces a Crucial Inflation and Payrolls Test on Friday | Investing.comEUR/USD Faces a Crucial Inflation and Payrolls Test on Friday | Investing.com Investing.com · 2026-10-01

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