China's Coal Past and Solar Present Are Colliding in Pakistan

01The Story新闻事实

A consumer-led surge of cheap Chinese solar panels has lifted solar to about 20% of Pakistan's electricity generation in 2025, up from roughly 3% at the start of the decade. While consumers benefit from cheaper power, falling grid demand is straining state utilities and complicating debt repayment to Chinese companies operating Pakistan's largest coal plants, creating tension between China's clean-tech exports and its Belt and Road fossil-fuel legacy.由中国廉价光伏板带动的自下而上的安装潮,使太阳能在2025年占巴基斯坦发电量约20%,远高于本世纪初的约3%。消费者获得更便宜的电力,但电网需求下滑令国有电力公司承压,也使运营巴基斯坦最大燃煤电站的中国企业债务回收更加复杂,凸显中国清洁技术出口与'一带一路'化石能源遗产之间的矛盾。

Solar accounted for about 20% of Pakistan's electricity generation in 2025, up from roughly 3% at the start of the decade, according to Ember.据Ember数据,2025年太阳能占巴基斯坦发电量约20%,本世纪初仅为约3%。
Pakistan became China's third-largest solar export market last year, driven by high power costs, an unreliable grid and cheap panels popularized via TikTok tutorials.受高电价、电网不可靠及TikTok安装教程带动的廉价组件推动,巴基斯坦去年成为中国第三大光伏出口市场。
Battery imports from China jumped almost 150% in the first half to a value of about $392 million, customs data show.海关数据显示,上半年中国产电池进口额激增近150%,达约3.92亿美元。
Consumption across Pakistan's electricity distribution companies was almost 12% lower in the 12 months to July 2025 than three years earlier.截至2025年7月的12个月内,巴基斯坦各配电公司用电量较三年前下降近12%。
Since 2013, China's fossil-fuel-related Belt and Road investments and contracts totaled about $350 billion versus $166 billion for renewables; green energy hit a record 56% of the total in the first half of this year.2013年以来,中国'一带一路'化石能源相关投资与合同约3500亿美元,可再生能源(含水电)约1660亿美元;今年上半年绿色能源占比创下56%的纪录。
China's banks and power companies undertook almost $60 billion of overseas coal-fired power plant construction over the last two decades, per Global Energy Monitor.据Global Energy Monitor统计,过去二十年中国的银行和电力企业承建了近600亿美元海外煤电项目。

Pakistan shows how a rapid, unplanned renewables boom can undermine the economics of legacy fossil-fuel infrastructure financed by the very same country exporting the solar panels.巴基斯坦的案例表明,快速且缺乏规划的可再生能源热潮,可能削弱由同一出口国融资建设的传统化石能源基础设施的经济性。

024 Dimensions维度分析

Cause因果关系

Solar's consumer-led boom消费者驱动的光伏热潮

High tariffs and an unreliable grid pushed factories, farms and homes to install cheap Chinese panels, sometimes used even as wedding dowry, with solar now supplying a fifth of national generation.高电价与不可靠的电网促使工厂、农户和家庭安装廉价中国组件(甚至被用作婚礼嫁妆),太阳能现已占全国发电量约五分之一。

Share of electricity generation from solar太阳能占发电量比例

20252025年20 %

A packaging factory owner near Karachi says rooftop panels cover about a fifth of the facility's needs at less than one-third of grid prices.卡拉奇附近一家包装厂厂主称,屋顶光伏满足工厂约五分之二的用电需求,电价不足电网的三分之一。

Consequence影响推演

Utility 'death spiral' and coal debt电网'死亡螺旋'与煤电债务

Falling grid demand is shrinking margins for state utilities and complicating repayment to Chinese companies operating Pakistan's largest coal plants.电网需求下滑压缩国有电力公司利润,也使运营巴基斯坦最大燃煤电站的中国企业债务回收更加困难。

Decline in distribution-company electricity consumption配电公司用电量降幅

12 %12%

12 months to July 2025 vs three years earlier截至2025年7月的12个月,较三年前

'Every consumer who is opting out of the grid and going to solar is causing the burden to increase... This is like a death spiral for all the utilities,' said Muhammad Mujahid of Innovo Corp.Innovo Corp的Muhammad Mujahid称:'每个脱离电网转向 solar 的消费者都在加重负担……这对所有电力公司而言就像死亡螺旋。'

Contradiction矛盾之处

China's dual role: coal builder and green exporter中国的双重角色:煤电建设者与绿色出口商

Chinese renewable technologies and Chinese fossil-fuel plants are 'at odds with each other' in the same markets, and Beijing is wary that any Pakistan resolution could set a precedent elsewhere.中国的可再生能源技术与煤电项目在同一市场'相互冲突',北京担心对巴基斯坦的任何处理方式都会成为其他地区的先例。

BRI fossil-fuel investment and contracts since 20132013年以来'一带一路'化石能源投资与合同

2013–present2013年至今350 $ billion

H1 20262026年上半年56 %

President Xi pledged in 2021 that China would no longer develop new overseas coal power projects, and Chinese firms have largely complied.习近平主席2021年承诺中国不再新建海外煤电项目,中国企业基本遵守了这一承诺。

Future signal前瞻信号

Batteries and geopolitics deepen self-sufficiency电池与地缘政治加深能源自给

Households and businesses shaken by the Iran War's energy disruption are adding Chinese batteries, further eroding grid demand, though coal has seen a comeback as the Strait of Hormuz closure choked off Qatari LNG.受伊朗战争能源供应中断冲击的家庭和企业正在加装中国产电池,进一步侵蚀电网需求;不过霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致卡塔尔LNG中断后,煤电近来有所回潮。

Growth in battery imports from China中国产电池进口增幅

150 %150%

First half上半年

Value of battery imports from China中国产电池进口额

392 $ million392百万美元

First half上半年

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off almost all liquefied natural gas cargoes from Qatar, Pakistan's key supplier.霍尔木兹海峡关闭切断了几乎所有来自巴基斯坦主要供应国卡塔尔的LNG货物。

03Timeline时间线

2021 President Xi Jinping pledged China would no longer develop new coal power projects overseas.习近平主席承诺中国不再新建海外煤电项目。
2022 Allana's packaging factory near Karachi added rooftop solar to limit exposure to surging grid prices.卡拉奇附近Allana的包装厂加装屋顶光伏,以规避飙升的电网电价。
2025 Solar reached about 20% of Pakistan's electricity generation; distribution-company consumption fell almost 12% over 12 months.太阳能占巴基斯坦发电量约20%;配电公司用电量12个月内下降近12%。
2026 Green energy hit a record 56% of Belt and Road energy commitments in the first half; battery imports from China jumped almost 150%.上半年绿色能源占'一带一路'能源承诺的56%创纪录;中国产电池进口激增近150%。

Key takeaway核心结论

Pakistan's solar surge is delivering cheap power to consumers while destabilizing the grid economics and Chinese-financed coal debts that underpin its power system.巴基斯坦的光伏热潮为消费者带来廉价电力,同时也动摇了电网经济性和中国融资煤电债务所支撑的电力体系。

04What to Watch后续关注

Whether Chinese officials make any concessions on Pakistan's outstanding power-plant debts, which could set a precedent for similar dilemmas elsewhere.中国官员是否会在巴基斯坦未偿电厂债务上做出让步,这可能为其他地区的类似困境树立先例。
Further growth in battery imports and grid defection as households and businesses seek self-sufficiency after the Iran War's energy disruption.伊朗战争能源中断后,随着家庭和企业追求自给自足,电池进口和'脱离电网'趋势是否进一步扩大。
Whether coal sees a sustained comeback in Pakistan following the Strait of Hormuz closure cutting off Qatari LNG.霍尔木兹海峡关闭切断卡塔尔LNG后,巴基斯坦煤电是否持续回潮。
Signs of similar renewables-versus-legacy-energy tensions in other markets hosting Chinese-built coal plants.其他拥有中国承建煤电厂的市场是否出现类似'可再生能源与传统能源'的紧张局面。

05Uncertainties不确定因素

The exact terms of any potential China-Pakistan debt resolution remain unknown; officials have so far been unwilling to make major concessions.中巴债务问题潜在解决方案的具体条款尚不明朗;官员迄今不愿做出重大让步。
Pakistan's Prime Minister's office did not respond to requests for comment, leaving the government's position unclear.巴基斯坦总理办公室未回应置评请求,政府立场尚不明确。
Solar has limitations and is not fully replacing grid-supplied power for industrial users like Allana's factory.太阳能存在局限,尚不能完全替代像Allana工厂这类工业用户的电网供电。

06Sources信息来源

China’s Coal Past and Solar Present Are Colliding in PakistanChina’s Coal Past and Solar Present Are Colliding in Pakistan Energy Connects / Bloomberg · 2026-10-01

Share this analysis 分享此深度分析

X Facebook LinkedIn WhatsApp